波德申补选安华不轻松

当拿督斯里安华考虑重返政坛时，他曾想过让妻子，即班登国会议员兼副首相拿督斯里旺阿兹莎辞职，制造补选让他上阵。这也是许多选民、政治观察家和政坛人士原本所想的。

旺阿兹莎是在1998年安华遭革除并因肛交案被监禁时，代夫上阵，中选为峇东埔国会议员。她被媒体形容为“勉为其难的政治人”，当年丈夫在政治上雄心勃勃时，这名眼科医生兼家庭主妇，则忙著把5个孩子抚养长大。

2008年第12届大选后，国阵第一次失去国会2/3优势，我采访她时，她说，这令她引以为豪的事，实际上当年她并没意愿投入政治领域，只是时势所迫，让她成了全国的焦点。

旺姐的人生观与美国35任总统约翰肯尼迪的夫人杰奎琳很相似，只是方法和效果有所不同。杰奎琳当年在肯尼迪被刺杀后，并没有换下沾上肯尼迪血迹的衣服，就出席数个小时后于美国空军一号上为约翰逊进行的总统宣誓仪式。当时，杰奎琳说：“让世界看他们做了什么。”

旺阿兹莎今天局面已不同了。她没有悬空国席。毕竟，她是我国第一位女副首相。如要旺姐悬空其国席，这无疑是在打击提升女性在政治领域和出任领导角色的努力，安华将面对女性选民和性别平等权利倡导者的强烈反对。在这之前，安华表明当他出任首相时，旺姐将退位的言论，就遭到如此抨击。

新一代大马人认同

安华也没想过要其女儿努鲁依莎，现今峇东埔国会议员辞职，因为她是政坛明日之星。公平地说，在安华与朋友和顾问的谈话中，安华表明不希望被视为通过捷径任相。毕竟，被指定为敦马的继任者（现在或20年前），已引来很多人质疑，认为在新马来西亚时代，权力的转移应遵循法治精神。

毕竟，直到8月安华当选为公正党主席前，他没有任何正式官职及头衔。甚至，在安华获得国家元首的赦免，而在刑期满一个月前提前获释，也备受质疑，因为这是在希盟政府尚未完全成立，并且没有总检察长授权下进行的。

许多当代的选民都不记得或无法领会，因安华被革除及监禁而掀起的“烈火莫熄”改革运动，是20年后改朝换代的催化剂。安华明白，他需要获得新一代马来西亚人认同，而这些敢于质问的新一代马来西亚人，不会如前任首相般所认为，会盲目的效忠领袖。更何况，这场安华制造的补选，是花费纳税人的时间和金钱下进行的。

因此，安华需要一个有难度的议席，或者至少被视为在补选中经过一番奋斗，让他回到国会，并帮助他回到布城和首相署，完成接棒大计。一个传统的马来人占多数国席，如波德申，这个曾被称为直落甘望选区，将有助于完成其大计。当然，还有另一个卖点是，为让安华完成心愿而辞职的拿督当雅，在大选时获得了1万7710票多数票，打败伊党及国阵。

需巨大胜利巩固使命

不过，在七人角逐的补选中，对手包括地方上名人前森州大臣依沙沙末，安华将面对著不小的阻力。

直落甘望不是垦殖区。因此，尽管依沙这名联邦土地发展局前主席，曾因涉及海外购屋案而被反贪会逮捕，但这不会影响他的机会。此外，退伍军人组织也反对牺牲当雅为安华制造补选。

因此，安华的阵营中有人担心6690张军人票，可能会流向代表伊党上阵的退伍军人莫哈末纳扎里，后者很有信心指，他可获得80％的军人票，以及这些军人家属的9000张选票。然而，伊党炮轰安华与印裔选民跳印度舞，无疑把占选民中22％的印裔推向安华。

安华在竞选时也提到他在伊斯兰青年运动组织（ABIM）的日子，这是为了向保守派人士展示其伊斯兰价值观，尽管这作法会引起自由派和非马来人不安。

安华也要面对其在第二宗肛交案原告赛夫的参选，必将挑起人们尤其保守一派因安华涉及的案件，而对他作出道德判断。

毫无疑问，对公正党尤其安华而言，这是一场不同的选举。他现在是执政党的成员，已不能如过去以抨击国阵，来吸引人群。据报导，安华每日的政治演讲，依然吸引庞大人群。安华很清楚知道波德申补选不是轻松一战，他表明需要巨大的胜利来巩固他作为下一任首相的使命。

支持者表示，安华作为未来首相人选，将能够更好地解决地方长期面对著的污染问题和废弃项目。但这说法是否意味著，如果没有安华作为首相，新的希盟政府就无法解决这些问题？

如果选择安全区上阵，安华是可以轻松地重返政坛。也许选择波德申是他要以自己的方式，来确定他在政治上及新马来西亚里，是否还有一席之地。10月13日，安华及国人就能知道答案。

《波德申补选安华不轻松》（It’s no day at the beach for Anwar）原文：

WHEN Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was considering his political comeback, the notion of having his wife, Pandan MP and current Deputy Prime Minister Datin Seri Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail stepping aside to give him way did cross his mind.

This was after all the arrangement that many of voters, observers and those active in politics expected to be executed.

Dr. Wan Azizah, after all had taken over as MP of Permatang Pauh following Anwar’s sacking from government and subsequent imprisonment for sodomy back in 1998.

Many interviews with Kak Wan as she is fondly known, painted her as a “reluctant politician” – an ophthalmologist and home maker who was busy raising her five children while her husband pursued his political ambitions.  
When I interviewed her in 2008 following the historic results of the 12th general election that saw the mighty Barisan Nasional (BN) lose its two-thirds majority in Parliament for the first time, she said it was a badge that she wore proudly. She was an unwilling participant in the country’s political arena who was thrust into the national limelight due to circumstances.

Her philosophy is similar but different in execution and dramatic effect of Jaqueline Kennedy who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Lydon B. Johnson aboard Air Force One, dressed in the same clothes drenched in the blood of her husband President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated hours earlier.

“Let the world see what they had done,” Jackie O had said.

With Dr. Wan Azizah, it is different today. She has not offered to vacate her seat. She is after all, the nation’s first deputy premier.

Anwar could face a backlash from female voters and the equal rights advocates for putting a plug in the advancement of women in politics and leadership roles. He already has, when he said Azizah will step down when he becomes prime minister.

Asking their eldest child, current Permatang Pauh MP Nurul Izzah to step aside had not even crossed his mind, as her star continues to rise.

To be fair, in his conversation with friends and advisors, Anwar did not want to be seen as having an easy route to the premiership. After all the fact that he is the anointed successor to Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad (now as well as 20 years ago) is drawing much negativity with many questioning this sense of entitlement in the New Malaysia that is supposed to be one that is governed by rule of law.

He is after all, an individual with no official position or title until August when he was elected president of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).

Even his hastily put together Royal Pardon – one month before his actual release from prison – is in question as it was mooted by a government that had not been formed, and without an Attorney General.

Many of the current generation of voters do not remember or appreciate the Reformasi movement that started with Anwar’s sacking and jailing and considered the catalyst for the change in government after 20 years.

Anwar, understands that he needs to stay relevant to a new breed of Malaysians who will call your bluff and who do not offer blind loyalty as the immediate-past-premier was lulled into thinking he enjoyed.

This is after all, the fourth by-election tailor made for Anwar and it’s costing taxpayers’ time and money.
Anwar needed a tough seat – or at least be seen to be struggling in the by-election, engineered to put him back in Parliament and facilitate his return to Putrajaya and the West Wing of Perdana Putra to secure the leadership succession plan.

A conservative Malay majority area like Port Dickson – once known as the Telok Kemang parliamentary constituency, would help this narrative.

However, this could be a hard sell as Datuk Danyal Balagopal Abdullah who resigned to make way for Anwar’s ambition is a Muslim convert who reaped a majority of 17, 710 votes over PAS.

Now with a seven-cornered fight, including popular local boy, former Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar Tan Sri Isa Samad, Anwar could be biting off more than he can chew.

Telok Kemang is not a Felda settlement. This in mind, at grassroots level the fact that Isa, the former chairman of Felda was arrested by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) over property purchases abroad, may not affect his chances.

Then there is the opposition of ex-military groups including the influential Patriot Association that Danyal, a retired navy man has been sacrificed.

There are concerns within Anwar’s camp that a bulk of the 6,690 military votes may go to PAS candidate, Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) retiree Lt Col (R) Mohd Nazari Mokhtar – something the latter is also confident of, bragging that he can take 80% of the military votes, as well as the 9,000 votes belonging to military family members.

Then there was that dance to an MGR song directed at the Indian voters who make up 22 % of the 75,200 voters. PAS has been milking the cringing display of crowd pleasing in the election campaign. If one understands the psyche of the rural and marginalized Indians, that jig by a celebrity politician sealed the Indian votes for Anwar.

That he has made references to his days in ABIM is an attempt to underscore his Islamic values with the conservative folks although this reference will bring discomfort to liberals and non-Malays.

That Saiful Bukhari a former aide who accused him of sodomy that he was convicted and jailed again for is contesting is bound to bring up salacious thought of the conservatives who will undoubtedly pass moral judgement on him.

Without a doubt this is a very different poll for PKR and Anwar especially. He is now part of the ruling party, so his campaigns cannot be a tried and tested BN-bashing session that brought in the crowds in droves.

It is reported that the crowds at his daily ceramahs while large, is still wanting for an Anwar Ibrahim event.
Anwar knows all too well that PD is not a day at the beach and has said he needs a big win to solidify his mandate as the next prime minister.

He is going against the grain. Supporters have said that as the prime minister he would be in a better position to resolve the long-standing local issues of pollution and abandoned projects. But are they saying the new Pakatan Harapan (PH) government cannot do the same without Anwar as PM?

Anwar could have easily copped out and taken the easy route by contesting in a safe seat. Perhaps going to Port Dickson was his way of finding out for himself if he is still relevant today and if he has a place in the new Malaysia. He and the rest of the country will find out on Oct 13.