林德宜：是时候组建联合政府了

随著5月18日国会的召开，几乎可以看到，国民联盟与希望联盟之间的政治权力之争将愈演愈烈。在平时，这种政治竞争是可以预料和可取的。政治冲突是议会民主制度的组成部分。这展示各政党及其领导人政治议程的信息和见解。同时，也作为一种问责制以制衡极权的政府。最后，国会也是争夺国家统治权场合。

但是，当下不是平时。马来西亚正面对著三重危机的冲击。即新冠疫情；国内和全球经济下滑；不断扩大的权力斗争已成为各政党的焦点。这场危机趋同的影响以前所未有的方式对马来西亚人产生了直接和溢出的效应。

我国面对著三重危机

同时，这场三重危机没有任何缓和迹象。反之，有迹象表明，情况可能在接下来的18个月，甚至更长的时间内，变得更糟。

在新冠疫情方面，尽管我国的感染率趋于平稳，但卫生官员警告勿掉以轻心，宣布战胜病毒，还言之过早。不要低估可能出现的新一轮感染和更大层面的公众卫生灾害的威胁。

世界卫生组织表示，新冠病毒疫苗可在未来18到24个月内开发出来。但这是乐观的。卫生总监诺希山提醒，新冠病毒会变异。同时，在疫苗面世之前，其研发是非常复杂且耗时的。

在经济方面，首相慕尤丁于5月1日时估计，限行令首47天内的停产停工，已导致我国蒙受了630亿令吉的经济损失，而往后每一天停产停工带来的损失，高达25亿令吉。疫情对国家生产力、增长、就业和收入严重的冲击，料将持续至今年下半年，甚至延续到2021年。

目前尚无法估计，经济何时能复苏。无人能知道马来西亚以及世界其他地区的复苏速度。尽管，政府推出了多项振兴经济配套，但不排除马来西亚的国内生产总值（GDP）负增长情景，将延续到2021年。

在这情况下，马来西亚政治要像往常一样，可能是不正确的。

面对著危害我们社会整体幸富和繁荣的威胁时，要求政治上的团结，而不是分裂和不统一。我们需要各政党携手合作，以确保能够成功渡过这有史以来最艰难的时期。

在一些国家，疫情和经济危机促使社会出现要求一个联合政府的呼声。英国的一项YouGov调查发现，有63％的人赞成一个由各主要政党组成的联合政府，各政党放下歧见，共同携手合作抗疫。在该1609人的调查中，共有31％的人表示，强力的支持这一建议。只有17％的人表示反对。

国人会拥护联合政府吗？

如果类似的民意调查在马来西亚进行──加上当下政治不确定性和动荡，不要惊讶，其结果可能是，大多数选民会支持可带来更大的政治稳定的某种形式联合政府，以恢复国家常态。实际上，在所有族群的中下阶层，除了国民联盟和希盟的支持者之外，很少有人会完全反对这一想法。

从国内专业人士和教育精英进行的抽样调查，可表明他们对于组建一个包容国民联盟和希盟的联合政府，有更大的保留和怀疑。他们关注的问题包括，联合政府是否可以促进良好的治理；自私的政治精英会否劫持这样的政体；这会否可能实际上阻碍了政治改革的动力等，这些质疑都是合理且可以理解的。

尽管存在这些担忧，但现实是，现有的政治恶斗如一直持续到来届大选，这将把我国社会和经济推向一个灾难。

当然，如何把充满分歧的两个联盟，拉在一起共组联合政府，也是一个大问题。

显然，要组建一个全民团结的联合政府使命，需要高超的政治才能。但是，如果我们的政治领袖有意愿并以国家利益为先，这并非不可及的。近代历史中，我们不缺组建联合政府，应对国家危机的例子。

这是如何过渡和从这种临时政治解决方案中受益的最好例子。我们也可以向宪法专家、法律界相关利益人士请教，确保联合政府的合法性和有效性。

尽管纠缠著政治恩怨，首相慕尤丁、安华，以及希盟的其他同侪，是最适合去推动组建一个包容性和以危机管理为首的联合政府。加上东马的政治领袖，这是克服当下危机的最好希望。他们应支持并努力实现这目标，并谨记“每一次危机中都有机遇”的鼓舞人心名言。

如果他们成功了，他们还将有机会重新启动一个遭到种族宗教政治约束下的腐败政治体系。重新启动后，大马很可能将迎来一个有更好治理、问责制和透明度的时代，以增强国家的应变能力。

《是时候组建联合政府了》英文版：Is it time for a unity government

A national unity government can manage the triple crisis and reform our political system

The reconvening of Parliament on 18 May will almost definitely see an intensified tussle for political power between Perikanan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. In ordinary times this political rivalry is to be expected and desirable. The clash of politics is part and parcel of a parliamentary democratic system. It provides information and insights into the agendas of rival parties and their leaders. It also acts as a check against an otherwise authoritarian government by ensuring accountability. Lastly it serves as precursor to the electoral contest for the right to govern the nation.

But these are not ordinary times. Malaysia has been hit by a triple crisis. That of covid 19; a national and global economic downturn; and a widening power struggle which has taken center stage among the political parties. The impact of this crisis convergence has direct and spillover effects for Malaysians in a way which has never happened before. 

The Triple Crisis

Meanwhile this triple crisis shows no signs of abating. Indications are that it may get much worse in the next 18 months and possibly for a longer time. 

On the pandemic front although the infection rate has flattened here, health officials have warned of a premature declaration of victory. The threat of a new round of infection and a more massive debilitation of the public’s health cannot be discounted. 

The World Health Organization has indicated that an anti Covid19 vaccine may be developed in the next 18 to 24 months. But this is being optimistic. The Ministry of Health Director General, Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah has reminded that there are new strains from the virus. Research for the right vaccine will be complex and time consuming before it is available to the public. 

On the economic front, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yasin estimated on 1 May that the 47 day shutdown had cost the country RM63 billion in losses and every day after that would add another RM2.5 billion loss.  The hit on national productivity, growth, employment and incomes will continue until the rest of the year and will stretch into 2021. 

There are currently no estimates of when recovery can take place. The speed of recovery in Malaysia as also with the rest of the world is also not known. A negative GDP growth scenario for Malaysia extending into 2021 despite multiple stimulus packages cannot be ruled out. 

In this situation a return to politics as usual in Malaysia may be the wrong road to take. 

The combined threats to our collective welfare and prosperity calls for political unity, not division and disunity. It calls for the political parties to work together to ensure that we can successfully navigate this most dangerous period of our history.  

In some countries the pandemic and economic distress has led to calls for a national unity government. A YouGov survey in Britain found 63% in favour of a united government in which the country’s main political parties would set aside differences to work together through the pandemic. From the survey of 1,609 people it found a total of 31% who said that they would strongly support such a move. Only 17% stated that they would be opposed. 

Will Malaysians Favour a National Unity Government

If a similar poll is held in Malaysia - with political uncertainty and turmoil added to the equation - it will not be surprising to find a significant majority of the electorate in favour of greater political stability and some form of a unity government to restore the nation to normalcy.  In fact, among the lower and middle classes of all communities, it is likely that few, except among the most partisan Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan supporters, will be against this idea outright. 

A sampling of the nation’s professional and educated elite may indicate greater resistance or skepticism towards an inclusive unity government drawn from both PN and PH coalitions.  Concerns such as whether such a government can serve to advance good governance; whether it will be hijacked by self-serving elites; whether it may in fact stall the drive for political reform, etc. are valid and understandable. 

Despite these concerns, the reality is that the political infighting continuing into the next general election may push the country’s politics, economy and society into a potential disaster zone.  

How to set up a unity government given the deep rift between the two coalitions is also problematic.       

Clearly the mission to put together a national unity government will require a high standard of statesmanship. But this is not beyond our leaders if they have the will and the nation’s interest at heart. Recent history has seen examples of the successful establishment of unity governments in countries facing national crises. There are best examples on how to transit and benefit from this temporary political solution. We can also learn from our own constitutional experts and stakeholders on the legal and other considerations that are necessary to ensure legitimacy and effectiveness.  

Despite their checkered past, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Anwar Ibrahim, his counterpart in Pakatan Harapan, are in the best position to establish an inclusive and crisis management focused unity government. Together with the leaders of East Malaysia, they are our best hope to overcome the crisis the nation is facing. 

They should be encouraged in this endeavour and be reminded of the inspirational quote that “opportunity lies in every crisis”. 

If they succeed In doing so, they will also have the opportunity to bring about a reboot of a decaying political system which has been shackled by the rise of ethno-religious politics. That reboot may very well also usher in a period of better governance, accountability and transparency to bolster national resilience.