林德宜：解决我们的社会经济危机

自3月由新冠病毒引爆全球股市大跌，也是自2008年金融危机以来，一周内最大的跌幅后，7个月后的今天，世界和马来西亚的经济前景又如何？

在2月下旬和3月初，市场迷漫著悲观情绪。国际货币基金组织表示，2020年的衰退可能会比2008年的全球金融危机更为严重。经合组织（OECD）秘书长更警告说，全球经济将需要数年的时间才能恢复。

今天，全球经济的复苏速度，比之前所预期的令人沮丧情况还要好，我们看到的前景是更乐观的。大多数国家采取及时有效的政策减缓了对经济的冲击，减轻对家庭收入和企业的影响；生产和就业的萎缩幅度要比最初所担忧的要小。

然而，经济前景仍然充满著不确定。实际上，疫情对经济和社会造成的冲击预计持续到2021年，甚至2022年，直到开发出疫苗并在世界范围内普及。

令人担忧的是，在放松限制和封锁措施，经济活动快速反弹之后，商业的调查显示，有迹象表明全球复苏的步伐已开始失去动力。即使在发达经济体中也是如此。在英国，一项估计是，英国当下的经济比2019年底时萎缩了21.8％，而可能需要长达5年的时间才能恢复原有水平。

对于马来西亚来说，国内生产总值（GDP）和增长率可能不会像最初担心的那样受到严重打击。但是我们的经济形势仍然充满不确定性。根据世界银行的《东亚十月份经济》报告，总体而言，我们将看到2020年经济萎缩4.9％，而出口、私人投资和私人消费的所有关键指标都将下滑。

然而，世行预计经济将于2021年复苏，估计增长率为6.3％。这项预测是基于疫情在马来西亚和我们出口市场的国家，都受到控制的假设；并且全球经济活动恢复到一定的常态，或许一些领域可取得U形的经济复苏模式。

中小企业是经济复苏以及经济持续发展与繁荣的关键动力。这是所有拥有可信度的经济报告和分析员（无论国外还是本地）都认可的。

以下是2019年中小企业对马来西亚经济的贡献清单：

●数量有100万，或占企业总数的98.5％
●提供就业人口的48.4％（730万人）
●为国民生产总值贡献38.9％
●分布在所有州，各领域，规模不等，从微型企业，小型企业到中型企业都有
●90％的中小企业服务于国内市场，但整个领域的出口值达1760亿令吉

经济和社会骨干

中小企业不仅是经济支柱。它们对社会稳定和凝聚力起著关键作用。中小企业对促进国家的团结与和谐之重要贡献，一直没有获得经济学家和媒体评论家应有的重视，甚至遭到忽略。

在此有必要提醒决策者和政界人士，中小企业日益成为多元族群合作和族际在各层面联系和互动的主要来源，这反映在包括公司股权，劳动力和其他层面。

同样不为人所知的是，妇女拥有20％的中小型企业，从而促进了性别平等。

显然，不管是基于经济和社会因素，在短期和中期的未来，振兴中小型企业应该是政府的首要政策重点。尤其在新冠疫情下，中小企业遭受到最大的冲击。

尽管采取了削减成本的措施，并在政府的振兴经济配套下获得援助，但整个中小企业领域仍处于危机处境。这可从报导和持续看到许多中小企业关闭、裁员和破产中看出来。

或许最危险的连锁反应是对就业的冲击。在疫情爆发初期，大马经济研究所预测，疫情可能造成240万人失业。中小企业公会（SME）3月的估计，如果国内10％的中小企业在未来几个月内破产，将导致多达100万人失业。这还没包括在服务领域的中小企业，如零售、餐馆、旅游服务、酒店、电影院、娱乐中心、体育和休闲场所雇用的200万员工。这些企业中有许多至今还无法营业。

大型的中小企业面对著的风险，与其他中小企业是一样。这一阶层虽只占总数的2.3％，但其提供的就业比例却很高。在某层面上，因需求萎缩和客户流失，中型的中小企业面对的风险是最大。一旦关闭，他们通常将很难翻身。

因此，在协助中小企业上，政府做得足够吗？政府还能采取怎样的措施，减轻中小企业财政负担，提供贷款援助和其他援助？向低收入民众（B40）提供援助会带来政治好处，但确保雇用国内大部分劳动力的中小企业的生存，将带来更大的经济回报。

这问题应是国内所有利益相关者应关注的。对于即将在国会辩论2021年预算案的议员来说，一个足于令他们思考的难受事实：如果当年用于拯救马航、普腾、土著银行、柏华嘉钢铁厂、联邦土地发展局（FELDA）、一马公司以及其他因管理不善、贪污和滥权的项目之款项，其中的一小部分用于加强中小企业，马来西亚就不会陷入当下经济危机中。

政府现在需加强对中小企业的援助，以确保国家的经济骨干不会崩塌。

《解决我们的社会经济危机》（Addressing Our Socio-Economic Crisis）原文：

7 months after world stock markets went into free fall due to the corona virus outbreak and their largest single week decline since the world financial crisis of 2008, what does the economic future look like for the world and Malaysia?

In late February and March, pessimism was the consensus. The IMF chief stated that 2020 could see a recession worse than the 2008 global financial crisis and the OECD secretary general warned that the global economy will take years to recover.

Today the global economy has recovered more quickly than these gloomy scenarios have predicted and we are seeing a more optimistic outlook.  Prompt and effective policy support introduced in most countries have enabled economies to cushion the impact on household incomes and businesses; and the contraction in output and employment has been of a smaller magnitude than initially feared.

Nevertheless the economic outlook still remains exceptionally uncertain. In fact the toll of the pandemic on economies and societies is expected to continue into 2021 and even 2022 until a vaccine cure is found and disseminated worldwide.  

Of concern is that after the initial bounce-back in economic activity following the easing of confinement and lockdown measures, there are signs from business surveys that the pace of the global recovery has begun to lose momentum. This is the case even in the advanced economies. In Britain one estimate is that the UK economy is now 21.8% smaller than it was at the end of 2019 and may need as many as 5 years to recover.

For Malaysia, the GDP and growth rate may not be as badly hit as initially feared. But our economic situation is still extremely precarious. According to the World Bankˇs East Asia October Economic Update, overall we will see an economic contraction of 4.9% for 2020 with all the key indicators of exports, private investment and private consumption falling back.

However the Bank projects an economic recovery to take place in 2021 with an estimated growth rate of 6.3%. This forecast is based on the assumption that the pandemic is contained in Malaysia and in our export markets; and that global economic activity returns to some normalcy, perhaps in a partial U shaped economic recovery pattern.

SMEs: Backbone of Malaysiaˇs Economy and Society

The key driver for economic recovery as well as our continued economic development and prosperity are the small and medium scale enterprises. This is recognized by all credible economic reports and analysts - whether foreign or local.

Here is a list of the SME contributions to the Malaysian economy in 2019:
〈make up one million or 98.5% of all business establishments
〈Provide 48.4% of all employment (7.3 million persons)
〈contribute 38.9% to the national GDP
〈are located in all states, all sectors and range in size from micro-enterprises, small and medium
〈90% of SMEs serve the domestic market but the sector had an export value of RM176 billion

SMEs are not just a pillar of the economy.

They also play a key role in social stability and social cohesion. This vital contribution of SMEs to national unity and harmony has either been ignored or it has not been properly acknowledged by economists and media commentators.

Here it is necessary to remind policy makers and politicians that SMEs are increasingly the main source of multiracial partnerships and inter-ethnic linkages, relationships and interaction at many levels, including ownership, labour force and in other spheres.

Also not generally known is that 20% of SMEs are owned by women thus contributing to gender equality.   
 
Clearly, reviving the SME segment in the short and medium term future should be the number one policy priority of the Government for both economic and social reasons. This is especially since SMEs have been the main casualties of the Covid impact.

Despite cost cutting measures and some relief provided by Government stimulus measures,  the SME sector as a whole is still in crisis mode. This can be seen in the high numbers of reported and continuing shut downs, layoffs and bankruptcies.

Perhaps the most dangerous knock-on effect has been on employment. At the beginning of the pandemic outbreak the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research projected the number of possible job losses at 2.4 million. The Association of SMEˇs estimated in March that up to one million Malaysians could lose their jobs if 10% of small and medium enterprises in the country go bust in the coming months. This did not take into account the service industry part of SMEs which employs 2 million workers in retail, restaurants, tourist services, hotels, cinemas, entertainment centers, sports and recreation outlets. Many of these businesses continue to be closed today. Equally at risk are the top tier of SME enterprises. They constitute about 2.3% of the total but they account for a disproportionately large share of employment. In some ways these medium sized SMEs are the most at risk from demand destruction and customer loss. Once shut down, there is often no way back for them.

So is the Government doing enough and what else should the government be doing in terms of policy measures to reduce financial burdens and providing relief for loans and other obligations?  Providing assistance to the B40 group brings political advantage but ensuring the survival of SMEs which employs much of the nationˇs labour force will bring greater economic returns.  

These issues should be of concern to all stake players and stakeholders in the country.

A Reminder

Hereˇs an uncomfortable truth for our Parliamentarians meeting soon on Budget 2021 to think about

If only a small fraction of public funds that was used to bail out MAS, Proton, Bank Bumiputra, Perwaja, FELDA, Tabung Haji, 1 MDB and other mismanaged and graft and abuse ridden projects had been used instead to build up our SME sector,  Malaysia would not be in the economic crisis we are experiencing. Government now needs to step up adequate assistance to SMEs to ensure that the countryˇs economic backbone is not broken.