庄太量／郑荣信：投资上资讯比分析重要？

自从进入网络时代，林林总总的讯息随手可得，任何人只需拿起手机输入关键词就可以获得相关资料成千上万条的搜索结果。相比起没有网络的年代，那时的人们如果要做研究就需要到图书馆获取参考资料。

对于投资者而言，只需要输入相关股票代号或代码，就可以获取相关的资讯，比如当前股价、财报、股价走势图、研究报告。唾手可得的资讯固然带给人们许多便利，但是这些资讯可能掺杂了假新闻。

在资讯爆炸的时代了，有能力过滤资料以免被大量的资讯淹没是一门重要的学问。高分析能力和能获取正确资讯把明智的投资者和一般的投资者区分开来。试问高分析能力和获取正确的资讯两者哪一个比较重要？

选择阅读素材

不管一位投资者的分析能力有多高，如果是依据错误的资讯，其做出的决定肯定是不理想的。举例而言，有两位投资者同时要买一支股票，其中一位投资者是很聪明但是没有相关股票的资讯，单凭直觉买入；另外一位投资者却能分析该股票过去的价格走势和财务报表资料。也许后者没有前者那么聪明，但是却能依据正确的资料做决定，可想而知后者具有更大的优势。

显而易见，在资讯泛滥的时代，懂得获取正确的资讯极为重要。除了获取正确的资讯的能力，获取相关资讯的速度往往是决定成败的关键。

被经济学人杂志誉为“打败英格兰中央银行”的亿万富豪乔治·索罗斯（GeorgeSoros）完美地演绎了让人津津乐道的一场金融战役。无可否认，索罗斯在获取正确资讯的速度和能力有别于一般投资者，促使他在1992年从英镑空头交易中获利10亿美元。

但是，一般投资者必须注意到索罗斯其实是投机者。他很相信自己的直觉，一旦确认资讯是正确的就会把资金全压（allin），甚至使用杠杆来加大交易回报。尽管资讯正确，投资者也必须做好风险管理。要如何成为明智的投资者呢？首先，投资者需要改变阅读的习惯，在选择阅读的素材上做出调整和筛选。投资者可以减少阅读有政治立场的新闻、报章和杂志。

阅读高质量资讯

另外，投资者必须确保所阅读的资讯是高质量的，比如像彭博社和路透社这样国际性的权威新闻组织，而不是“路边社”或未经授权的网络媒体。

从权威媒体获得资讯可以免去阅读到假新闻的困扰。盲人摸象的比喻所带来的启示是当资讯错误时，多强的分析能力也是枉然的。这说明了当输入（input）是错误的，输出（output）就不可能正确。

再者，投资者可以选择阅读用数据做为根据和有深度分析的文章。这些深度分析的文章大多字数篇幅达一万字以上。投资者也必须注意文章的出处，即作者的立场是否独立和没有隐藏议程。

基本上，许多有深度的文章的书写语言是英文，被翻译或转载至中文，当中作者的原意可能有偏差，毕竟已经不是第一手的资讯，作为投资者的必须谨慎阅读和独立思考。

投资者也应避免“以貌取人”，在阅读资讯时沦为“标题党”，只看标题就贸然下定论。在研究股票时，投资者可以针对个股参照不同的分析报告，对市场发出的各种声音保持开放态度，千万不能一味选择性地去听自己想听的分析而已。

另外在阅读上市公司在交易所发布的报告时，投资者必须综合多方面因素做分析。举例而言，理论上，大股东向交易所报备卖出股票意味著该大股东对公司前景看淡。然而在投资者心理学上，这仿佛是向所有阅读和跟进这份报告的投资者宣示这支股票不行了，明示投资者跟著卖出。

大股东买卖股票报备是全部投资者看到的。那是不是意味公司真的走下坡，抑或是在声东击西，在这里用官方平台昭告天下把票卖出，再从非官方管道买入股票做出布局。答案未必是直接的，需要从多方面下手。

不妨思考：业绩好，股价一定上；业绩不理想，股价就跌吗？答案是未必的，投资者憧憬未来，往往形成对业绩产生一种“已读不回”的情况。

总而言之，在这个时代，获取正确资讯及独立思考的能力是投资获利的先决条件。

 

《投资上资讯比分析重要？》（Is information more important than analysis in investing?）原文：

Since the advent of the Internet, a vast array of information has become readily available. Anyone can pick up a mobile phone and type in a keyword to receive thousands of search results for relevant information. In contrast to the pre-internet era, people had to go to the library to get reference materials if they wanted to do research. 

For investors, by inserting the relevant stock symbol or code, they can get the relevant information, such as the current stock prices, financial reports, stock price charts and research reports. However, easily available information can be mixed with fake news. In an age of information explosion, the ability to filter data so that one does not get overwhelmed is an important skill. 

Analytical skills and access to correct information distinguish the intelligent investor from the average investor. The question is which of the following is more important, good analytical skills or access to correct information?

No matter how good an investor's analytical skills are, if they are based on the wrong information, they will make a bad decision. For instance, assuming that there are two investors who want to buy a stock at the same time. One investor is smart but does not possess any information about the stock, so the investor buys on instinct. Another investor was able to analyze the stock's historical price movements and financial statements. The latter may not be as smart as the former, but the one who can make good decisions based on correct data,. 

Therefore, the latter investor has greater advantage than his counterpart. Obviously, in an age of information overload, knowing how to get the right information is extremely vital. In addition to the ability to obtain the right information, the speed with which relevant information is obtained makes the difference between success and failure. 

George Soros, the billionaire who The Economist hailed as "the man who broke the Bank of England", is a good example of one of the most famous financial battles. Admittedly, Soros's speed and ability to get the right information set him apart from the average investor, prompting him to make a $1 billion profit a day in 1992 from betting against the British pound. But the average investor must note that Soros is in fact a speculator. He trusted his instincts so much that, once he knew the information was correct, he would go all-in, even using leverage to multiply his trading returns. Despite the correct information, investors must manage risk well.

How to be an intelligent investor? First of all, investors need to change their reading habits and make adjustments. For instance, they must learn to filter in the materials they choose to read. Investors can reduce patronising news, newspapers and magazines with political stands. In addition, investors must ensure that the information they are reading is of high quality, from reputable international news organizations such as Bloomberg and Reuters, instead of rumours or unauthorized online news outlets. 

Getting information from prominent media can save you the trouble of reading fake news. The metaphor of the blind men and the elephant suggests that when the information is wrong, the good ability to analyse is futile. In other words, when the input is wrong, the output cannot be correct.

In addition, investors can choose to read articles based on data and in-depth analysis. Most of these in-depth analysis articles are more than 10,000 words. Investors must also pay attention to the origin of the article, for instance whether the author's position is independent and without any hidden agenda. 

Basically, most of the in-depth articles are written in English and are translated or reprinted in Chinese. The original meaning of the author might deviate. After all, it is not first-hand information. Investors should avoid judging a book by its cover and becoming "headline junkies" who jump to conclusions based on the headlines. When doing research on stocks, investors can refer to different analysis reports for a particular stock and keep an open attitude to various voices from the market. They must not blindly listen to the analysis they want to hear.

In addition, when reading the announcements issued by listed companies in the stock exchange, investors must take various factors into considerations. In theory, for example, a substantial shareholder's reported sale of shares to the stock exchange means that the shareholder is pessimistic about the company's prospects. 

However, from the investor psychology perspective, the announcement seems like telling all the investors who read and followed the report that the stock would have a bleak outlook and implying them to sell. The announcements of substantial shareholders buying and selling shares can be viewed by all investors. Does that mean the company is really performing badly, or is it just playing around, using official platforms to tell all of the investors to sell their positions, and then buying shares through unofficial channels tactically? The answer is not necessarily straightforward. It needs to be reviewed from various perspectives. Investors can ponder on the following questions, does good performance of a company guarantee that the share price must go up; is the share price down because of poor performance? No definite answer is available  as investors looking forward to the future often look past the current circumstances. 

In short, in this era, access to correct information and the ability to think independently are prerequisites for a profitable investment.

 

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展，楼市股市，经济政策建议，理财，科技，经济科课程及个人成长。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung／Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

▸Tey Eng Xin／Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.