Terence Fernandez：我国应参考新加坡交棒安排

三年前，新加坡总理李显龙在电视直播的国庆日群众大会上演讲时险些晕倒，震惊各方。当时64岁的李显龙迅速被送到后台，由医疗团队检查。大约90分钟后，李显龙重回到讲台，受到出席者鼓掌欢迎。李显龙也是癌症幸存者，他将身体的不适，归因于疲劳和高温。

他继续演讲，并强调观众之前所看到的就是人面对著的死亡现实，因此需要做好准备。他说：“刚刚发生的一切，使接班人的问题变得更加迫切。”之后，李显龙和人民行动党迅速做出接班人安排，党内决定由财政部长王瑞杰为李显龙接班人。

尽早安排添人民信心

王瑞杰也是人民行动党第一助理秘书长，并获李显龙委任为唯一的副总理，一改过去传统的两个副总理职位。这向党员、新加坡人和投资者传达了一个讯息，即如果国家领导人突然不在，已有一个指定人选接手。这也增强了投资者对新加坡的信心。曾中风过的王瑞杰，将有一个能干的团队协助其度过权力转移和上位。这已获得执政党的背书和从内阁改组中显示出来。

李显龙也通过赋予王瑞杰重要的职务，淡出国内和国际会议和活动，以让其继任者发挥角色。这包括退位让王瑞杰出任新加坡和中国双边合作联合理事会（JCBC）的联合主席，这是一个定位新加坡与中国关系的年度论坛。这不仅有助于王瑞杰接手总理之职，也可以使公众、商界、投资者和外国领导人熟悉王及其作风。

李显龙在最近在一项全球论坛上说：“我认为，尽早计划并安排有序的政治继任是非常重要的。”他补充说，他计划在下届大选后的18个月内移交职权。他说，这是要让继任者有时间去建立本身团队以及人民的信心。

相对新国有秩的领导人接班计划，我国有的却是混乱无章的交棒安排。那一位将接任第8任首相者，目前尚未在内阁。同时，现任首相敦马哈迪对其交棒给安华一事的承诺，也给予复杂的讯息。六年后将迈入百岁的马哈迪虽多次表明，安华是继任者，但这一承诺也附加了许多不确定性。

最近一次是在11月8日接受英国《金融时报》采访时，马哈迪表示，他会在解决国家所面对的问题后，才会退位。这是一个非常模糊的承诺。毕竟，哪个国家是没有问题的？他不断重复这说词：没有明确的要他退位日期或时间。

专注加强土团党势力

尽管马哈迪不断保证“安华将接替我”（他20年前也发表过类似的说法），但马哈迪也对《金融时报》表示：“在任命继任者时我犯了很多错误，所以我不想这次又犯错。”

如此复杂的讯息，很难不令商界、投资者和民众陷入一直揣测下任首相是谁的不健康的漩涡中。

当然，必须清楚，任相也不是安华与生俱来的权利。但继承人的安排，是要确保如果马哈迪有一天不在时，不会陷入混乱和不确定性。马哈迪医生应如一名好医生般，让我们放心，至少要让人了解接班人的安排，以免领导人突然不在，而陷入混乱。例如，拿督斯里旺阿兹莎会继任吗？而丹斯里慕尤丁会成为她的副手吗？

目前，马哈迪看似更专注于加强土团党的势力，以应对其他马来政党如巫统和伊党。就如经济学家戈梅斯教授（TerenceGomez）所警示的，马哈迪把9家官联公司置于土团党部长控制的部门，是在扩大土团党的势力。

也有一些人认为，马哈迪政府把许多重要决策，例如出售大道和官联公司重组，交由非民选的前部长来决定，犹如让行动党出任的财长沦为“政府会计员”。希盟执政下，令吉是东盟表现最差的货币，投资者的信心也大跌。

将希盟的交棒安排与人民行动党接班人计划进行比较，是不妥当的。后者没有希盟组成的复杂结构，希盟是由不同政治意识的人组成的，他们的目标是要推翻国阵和纳吉。如今目标已经实现了，其就有责任绘制一张清晰的权力过渡图。

马哈迪这次也可如在2003年般，在巫统大会上震惊各方宣布退位，导致股市暴跌，并在宣布过渡计划，表明由拿督斯里阿都拉接任后，再刺激股市反弹般处理，或者他也可参考新加坡李显龙那一套有明确的交棒计划。

《我国应参考新加坡交棒安排》（What Singapore teaches us about succession planning）原文：

THREE years ago, while delivering a live televised National Day speech, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong shocked audiences when he started to keel over.

Lee, then 64-years-old, was quickly rushed backstage where a team of doctors attended to him.

Lee returned to the rostrum almost 90 minutes later to a standing ovation, where the cancer survivor attributed the episode to fatigue and heat.

He continued his speech and highlighted that what the audience witnessed was a stark reality of everyoneˇs mortality and the need to be prepared.

¨What just happened makes it even more important to talk about succession,〃 Lee said.

Lee and the Peopleˇs Action Party (PAP) quickly put in place a succession plan where it was decided at the party level to anoint Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat as Leeˇs successor.

Heng was elected deputy president of PAP and Lee appointed him as the countryˇs sole deputy prime minister  the prime minister designate  doing away with the traditional two deputy premier posts.

This sent the message to party members, Singaporeans and investors that should there be a sudden vacancy at the top, there will be someone  a specific person  to step in and take over the reins.

These calmed investors and the Singapore Stock Exchange were seeing improvements in investor confidence of continuity.

Heng, a stroke victim himself was also assured of a capable team to assist him during and after the transition. These was seen in the cabinet reshuffles and party endorsements.

Lee also demonstrated that he was empowering Heng for the top job by stepping out of the spotlight at national and international meetings and events to allow his successor to shine.

This includes giving way to Heng to co-chair the Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC) between Singapore and China an annual forum which maps the direction of Singapore-China relations.

This not only helps Heng to ease into his role as Prime Minister but also allow the public, businesses, investors and foreign leaders to be familiar with Heng and his style.

"I think it is very important to try to plan ahead and to arrange for orderly political succession," Lee had told a global forum recently, adding that he plans to hand over the reins within 18 months following the next election.
This timeline, Lee said was to give his successor the time to build his team as well as the confidence of the people.

Leeˇs neighbours in the north are having their own muddled version of a succession plan. The man set to take over as the eight Prime Minister is not yet in Cabinet.

The current Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad continues giving mixed messages over his commitment to hand over the reins to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Dr. Mahathir who is six years shy of a century, has said on many occasions that Anwar will take over, although this commitment has been peppered with caveats.

And most recently in an interview with The Financial Times on Nov 8, he said he will not step down until he has resolved the problems facing the country.

This is extremely vague. Which country has no problems? And he repeats the mantra: there is no actual date or time mentioned for him to step down.

Despite constant reassurances that ¨Anwar will succeed me〃 (a similar statement he made 20 years ago), Dr. Mahathir goes on to tell The Financial Times that: "I have made many mistakes in appointing my successors, so I don't want to make another mistake this time."

With such mixed messages it is a wonder that corporate Malaysia, investors and Joe Public have been engaged in the unhealthy pre-occupation of speculating who the next prime minister would be.

To be absolutely clear, the premiership is not Anwarˇs birthright. What it is about is preventing the ensuing chaos and uncertainty if Dr. Mahathir does not wake up one day.

The Good Doctor should put us at ease, at least by explaining a succession plan should there be a sudden vacancy at the top. For example, will Datuk Seri Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail succeed him? Will Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin become her deputy?  

Right now, the Prime Minister is seen as more focused on powering up his party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) by engaging with other Malay parties such as UMNO and PAS. He is also perceived to be securing PPBMˇs war chest by bringing nine Government Linked Companies (GLCs) under the purview of ministries controlled by PPBM  as observed alarmingly by economist Prof Terence Gomez.

There is also the view that he is emaciating DAPˇs Finance Minister by reducing him to a glorified accountant with many crucial decisions such as the sale of toll concessions and GLC revamp being placed under the purview of unelected people in Menara Ilham.

In the meantime, the Ringgit is the worst performing currency in Asean, and investor confidence has dropped 100 points.

It would be misplaced to compare the succession plan in PH to the PAP. The latter is not made up of complex agreements and handshakes as PH, which is a motley crew of strange bedfellows who were a means to an end  to bring down Barisan Nasional and Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

Now that that end has been achieved, the responsible thing would be to chart a clear transition path.

He can take a leaf from the past when his own shock quit announcement at the UMNO General Assembly in 2003 resulted in stock market tumbling. But it rebounded following the announcement of a transition plan with Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi to take over and the latter taking over key positions to ease him into the eventual role as prime minister.
Dr. Mahathir can lead by Lee Hsien Loongˇs example of clarity or by his own example of 16 years ago.

Terence Fernandez is an award-winning journalist and communications consultant.