郑荣信/庄太量：板块投资更胜一筹？

股票指数被投资者视为股票市场的晴雨表。市场参与者通过比较当前和过去的价格水平，以衡量市场表现。大马富时综合指数正是市场参与者在马来西亚股票市场参照的指标。

大马富时综合指数（FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index）的前身为吉隆坡综合指数（Kuala Lumpur Composite Index）。吉隆坡综合指数于1986年4月4日推介，基数为100。大马交易所于2006年宣布和富时集团共同推出现有的大马富时综合指数，并在2009年7月全面采用现有指数。

大马富时综合指数采纳市值加权法（capitalization-weighted），即成份股是30家市值最高的上市公司。除了市值以外，这些公司必须符合至少15%自由流通量及流动性。30个成份股由源自不同板块的公司组成。咨询委员会将在每年6及12月对该指数进行审查，以确保其对股票市场具有代表性。

每当一家公司符合标准，升级被纳入成份股时，追踪指数的基金经理和资产管理公司会购入相关股票。这项举动往往会使该公司的股价水涨船高。相反的，当某一家公司不再符合成为成份股而被剔除时，基金经理和资产管理公司会减持该公司股票，导致股价下挫。

除了大马富时综合指数以外，大马交易所还有分别涵盖建筑、消费产品与服务、能源、金融服务、医疗保健、工业产品与服务、种植、房地产、房地产投资信托基金、科技、电信和媒体、运输和物流以及公用事业13个板块指数（sectoral indices）。这些板块指数的成份股仅限于在主板（Main Market）上市的755家公司。

根据大马交易所数据显示，截至2020年杪，按照市值排名第一至四的板块指数分别为金融服务（3625亿令吉）、消费产品与服务（2549亿令吉）、工业产品与服务（2086亿令吉）和医疗保健（1799亿令吉）。所有在同一个板块的股项具有极高的相关性（correlation）。

以2020年手套股表现超越大市（outperform）为例，因著新冠疫情导致全球对医疗品特别是手套的需求激增，在大马上市的手套公司挟著占据世界主要生产份额而成为投资者的“兵家必争之地”。再加上低利率环境和行动管制令的宣布，手套股一度被投资者扯购，股价在短时间内翻了好几倍。有了手套股的加持，医疗保健指数以全年上涨186%一跃成为大马交易所表现最亮眼的指数。

反观受到全球能源需求锐减的影响，能源板块全年下挫28%。相较于医疗保健指数涨势凌厉，反映市场总体的大马富时综合指数全年只录得2.4%的涨幅。换而言之，如果一个投资者投资在手套股，他所获得的回报是优于大市的。投资者应该专注于特定板块赚取优于或劣于大市的回报，抑或是分散投资以赚取和大市一样的回报是见仁见智。基于同一个板块的股项有相关性，投资者不妨寻找该板块备受投资者青睐、有良好估值和技术面的领头羊进行投资。

综上所述，投资者情绪对不同板块的影响各异，显示投资者的情绪对某个板块比其他板块更为显著。除了医疗保健板块，最近科技板块的科技股也因车用晶片供应短缺及疫情有持续恶化的迹象，使消费者对科技产品的需求增加，股价大受激励。

回顾大马股市历年表现，不难发现尽管反映大市的大马富时综合指数表现不佳，并不是所有板块指数都受到一样影响，有的甚至可以逆流而上。因此，投资者必须经常对时局进行探究，洞察相关板块的优劣势，放眼在特定板块提前布局，从而赚取可观回报。正如美国名作家马克吐温（Mark Twain）所说，尽管历史不会重演，类似事件可能会像文章的押韵一样以另一种方式演绎。在疫情持续笼罩的氛围下，医疗板块会否延续往年的势头，再接再厉，或是由其他的板块取而代之，还看今朝。

《板块投资更胜一筹？》（Can investor reap better profit from sectoral play?）原文：

Stock index is considered by investors as a barometer of stock market. Market participants assess market performance by comparing current price with historical price. 

FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index is the benchmark that market participants take the cue from. It was formerly known as Kuala Lumpur Composite Index. Kuala Lumpur composite index was introduced on April 4, 1986, with a base of 100. Bursa Malaysia made the announcement in 2006 that it was jointly launching the existing with the FTSE Group and fully adopting the index in July 2009. 

FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index adpots capitalization-weighted method, which means that the constituents are the 30 listed companies with the largest market capitalization. In addition, these companies must meet the requirements of at least 15% free float and liquidity. 30 constituents are made up of companies from different sectors. The advisory committee will review the index in June and December each year to ensure that it is representative of the stock market. 

Every time a company meets the criteria is added, fund managers and asset managers tracking the index will buy the shares of the new entrant. It tends to send the company's share price soaring. Conversely, when a company no longer qualifies as a constituent and is excluded, fund managers and asset managers will reduce their holdings of the company, causing the share price to fall. 

Apart from FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index, there are 13 sectoral indices in Bursa Malaysia that cover sectors namely, construction, energy, consumer products and services, financial services, healthcare, industrial products and services, plantation, property, real estate investment trust fund (REITs), technology, telecommunications and media, transportation and logistics, and utilities. These sector indices are confined to the 755 companies listed on the Main Market. 

As of late 2020, the first to fourth largest sectoral indices by market capitalisation are financial services (RM362.5 billion), consumer products and services (RM254.9 billion), industrial products and services (RM208.6 billion) and healthcare (RM179.9 billion) based on data retrieved from Bursa Malaysia. All stocks in the same sector have high correlations. 

In 2020, few glove stocks outperformed the market. For example, the pandemic has led to a surge in global demand for medical products, especially gloves. The glove manufacturers listed on Bursa Malaysia which have the lion’s share of glove production have become hotly contested spot for investors. Due to the low interest rate environment and the announcement of Movement Control Order (MCO), gloves shares were panic bought by investors and the share price surged several times momentarily. Thanks to the glove stocks, the healthcare index rose 186% for the year to become the best-performing index on Bursa Malaysia. 

In contrast, affected by a sharp drop in global energy demand, the energy index fell 28% for the year. The broader FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index was merely up just 2.4% for the year, dwarfed by the rally in the healthcare index. In other words, if an investor had invested in gloves, he would have outperformed the broader market. Whether investors should focus on specific sectors and earn better or worse returns than the broader market, or whether they should diversify to track the broader market, to each his own. Given the high correlation between stocks in the same sector, investors should look for the popular stock with a good valuation and technical outlook to invest.

In conclusion, the influence of investor sentiment varies across different sectors, implying that investor sentiment has a more significant impact on one sector than the other. Apart from the stellar performance of healthcare index, shares in the technology sector have recently been buoyed by rising consumer demand for technology products amid a shortage of chips for cars as well as signs of a worsening pandemic. 

Looking back at the performance of the Malaysian stock market over the years, it is not difficult to learn that although FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index that reflects the broader market has underperformed. However, not all sector indices are equally affected, and some can even sail against the current. Therefore, investors must constantly explore the current trend, inquire into the strengths and weaknesses of relevant sectors, look ahead to specific sectors in order to make a decent return. As Mark Twain put it, although history does not repeat itself, it often rhymes. In other words, similar events could have been played out in another way。 In the context of the pandemic, whether the rally of healthcare index will continue or to be replaced by other sectors, it remains as a puzzle to be solved.

【作者】

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。