庄太量／郑荣信：股市里数字和意义

宏观经济面的利好消息为马来西亚股市投资的散户注入强心针。根据大马交易所从2021年第一个交易日至2021年4月2日的数据显示，散户仍然是大马股市的净买家。在第一个季度里，散户一共买入价值为53.2亿令吉的股票，显示散户对大马股市的热情未减。

在大马证券监督委员会（SC）所公布的最新年报中，把股市投资者分为3大类，即本地散户、本地机构及外国投资者。散户投资者泛指个人或非专业投资者。根据该监管机构年报中的统计显示，只有散户投资者以交易额计算的参与度（32.4%）高于过去5年平均值（21.4%），其他两类投资者的参与度占比都下降。

2020年的年报也显示，有超过80%的散户投资者进行电子交易，反映了科技的进步使投资者更便捷进行交易。问题是，散户投资者参与度的增加会不会构成重大的系统性风险？不过，监管单位表示，由于这是由经验丰富的投资者推动的交易，主要来自现金储备，而不依赖借款，因此不会构成重大的系统性威胁。

避免以“价”买股

随著教育和资讯的普及，大部分散户投资者从选股到买股都可以独当一面，亲力亲为。然而，初入股市的散户投资者往往以股价作为唯一的选股标准，以为股价低的股就是捡到便宜货而照买不误。其实不然，跟日常生活的大小事一样，价格不等于价值。就好比五星级酒店的收费比三星级的酒店更高，但是其服务和设施是截然不同的，两者完全没有可比性。只有掌握了基本股市估值指标，投资才就可以避免以“价”买股，误踩地雷。

投资者不得不知的股市估值指标是非本益比或市盈率（Price-to-Earningsratio）莫属。本益比顾名思义是“成本和收益”的比例，计算方面可被分为分子和分母两个部分，分子为投资者所愿支付的成本而分母则为每股收益。换句话说，本益比就是投资者愿意为公司创造的每股盈利支付多少倍的价钱。

举例而言，一间上市公司每股盈利为50仙。如果公司的闭市价格为2令吉，将股价除以每股50仙的盈利，本益比就是4倍。本益比取决于公司最新的股价和每季度的收益。

当收益保持不变时，高本益比的股项可能是由于该股项的买气旺盛，投资者争相扯购该股项而使股价飙升，这种情况去年发生在众多医疗板块的股项上。另一种情况则是当股价保持不变，公司的收益下降使到本益比变高，那表示公司的股价被高估了，当许多投资者卖出股票时，股价随之下跌而本益比也会回归合理水平。

本益比的比较必须建立在同一个基准上，投资者可以通过比较本行业的其他公司本益比，来衡量一家公司的股价是否合理还是被高估了。假设该行业的平均本益比为15，某公司的本益比为20，意味著该公司的股票被高估了。

不过，本益比越高也不一定表示该股项被高估，这也可能是投资者对该公司的未来的前景和收益乐观，因此愿意为每股的收益支付更高的价钱。当该公司的业绩报捷时，本益比会因其较高的收益而变为合理。

一般上，拥有高成长率如科技板块的公司，会有更高的本益比。赚钱的公司本益比会是正值，而亏损的公司的本益比是负值，一般是不会被汇报的。这些都是股市里不能不注意的数字。  

 

《股市里数字和意义》（Is information more important than analysis in investing?）原文：

Recent positive macroeconomic news has boosted retail investors' confidence in Malaysia's stock market. Retail investors remained net buyers of the Malaysian stock market from the first trading day of 2021 to April 2, 2021, according to data from Bursa Malaysia. In the first quarter of 2021, retail investors bought a total of RM5.32 billion worth of shares, indicating that retail investors' enthusiasm for the Malaysian stock market has not abated. 

In addition, in the latest annual report released by the Securities Commission Malaysia, investors in the stock market are divided into three categories, namely Local retail, Local institutional and Foreign investors.

Retail investor refers to individuals or non-professional investors. According to the regulator's statistics in its annual report, retail investors' participation (32.4%) measured by total value traded is higher than its 5-year average (21.4%), while the participation of the other two groups of investors fell. 

The 2020 annual report also shows that more than 80 percent of retail investors trade electronically, reflecting advances in technology that have made it easier for investors to trade. The question is whether the increased participation of retail investors poses a significant systemic risk. Regulators said the increased participation of retail investors did not pose a significant systemic threat because it was driven by seasoned investors and trades wrer drawn mainly from cash reserves rather than borrowing.

Education and information have become more universal and most retail investors can do everything themselves, from stock pickings to purchases. However, retail investors who are new to the stock market often use price as the sole criterion for stock selection, thinking that lowly-priced stock is a bargain they must not miss. In fact, price is not equal to value. For example, five-star hotels charge more than three-star hotels, but their services and facilities are so different that they are not comparable at all. Only by understanding the basic stock market valuation indicators, investors can avoid buying stocks by merely looking at stock prices and fall into valuation trap.

Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a must-know stock market's valuation metric for all investors. PE ratio, as the name implies, is the ratio of price to earnings. The calculation can be divided into two parts: the numerator is the price investors are willing to pay and the denominator is the earnings per share. In other words, PE is how much investors are willing to pay for the RM1 earnings per share generated by the company. 

For example, a listed company with 1 million shares issued makes a profit of RM500,000 a year. Earnings per share is equal to RM500,000 divided by 1 million shares, or 50 sen per share. If the company's latest closing price is RM2, investors would have to divide the share price by an earnings of 50 cents per share, giving them a price-earnings ratio of 4  times. 

The PE ratio depends on the company's latest share price and quarter earnings. When earnings are constant, stocks with a high PE ratio may be driven by a high buying interest that pushes its share price as what had happened with many healthcare stocks last year. On the other hand, when the share price stays the same, the fall in company's earnings make the PE ratio become higher. That means the company's share is overvalued. When many investors sell the stock, the price falls and the PE ratio will be justified.

PE ratio comparison must be made based on apple to apple basis. Investors can compare the PE ratio of companies in the same industry to gauge whether the stock price is fair or overvalue. Assume that the PE ratio of industry's average is 15, while a company's PE ratio is 20, implying that the company's share is overvalued. A higher PE ratio does not necessarily mean the stock is overvalued, assuming that investors are optimistic about the company's future prospects and earnings and are willing to pay a higher price for earnings per share. When the company does well, the PE ratio is justified by its higher earnings. 

In general, companies with high growth rates, such as those in the technology sector, have higher PE ratios. A profitable company will have a positive PE ratio, while a loss-making company will not have a negative PE ratio reported.

【作者简介】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展、楼市股市、经济政策建议、理财、科技、经济科课程及个人成长。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

 

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung
Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

▸Tey Eng Xin
Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.