庄太量／郑荣信：通货膨胀到底是好还是坏？

最近，除了加密货币，“通货膨胀”这个热词占据各大财经报道的版面，可谓当红不让。随著以美国和中国世界两大经济体因新冠疫情好转经济步入复苏阶段，投资者对通货膨胀的担忧也逐渐增加。

其中一个衡量的指标，就是消费者物价指数（Consumer Price Index）。该指数用来衡量一篮子固定商品和服务价格的百分比变化，以反映生活成本。这些商品和服务可被分为12个类别，当中包括食品和非酒精饮料、交通、酒精和烟草、医疗、服装和鞋子及通讯等等。

消费者物价指数是每个月发布一次的，然而当前月份所发布的数据是上个月份的，以此类推。负责相关数据的部门将会把最新的消费者物价指数和上一年同期的做比较，如果最新的指数对比去年的有上升就表示通货膨胀，反之就是通缩。

经济学上，通货膨胀泛指商品和服务的价格普遍上涨的一种货币现象。成本推动型通货膨胀顾名思义就是由于生产成本的增加而导致的商品和服务总供给的减少，这和目前大宗商品价格上涨有关。疫情使到大宗商品的供给面受影响，进而推高许多生产商的原料价格。

另一方面，需求拉动型通胀则是由经济扩张、政府支出增加或海外经济体增长引起。以美联储针对疫情增印钞票和发放的援助以及一些一些国家疫情好转而发生报复性消费为例，这些活动都会引发通货膨胀。毕竟，这一次疫情的影响是空前的使到世界上主要经济体几乎无一幸免，各国政府纷纷祭出宽松货币政策来刺激经济。

有鉴于通货膨胀攸关消费者的购买能力，所以不仅是投资者，平民百姓和政府都关注通货膨胀。通货膨胀和通货紧缩常被经济学家称作影响经济的两个恶魔。那么，两者之间，哪一个更可怕？

通货紧缩

相较于通货膨胀，通货紧缩更不受欢迎。试想，当消费者预期物价在未来会下降就不会在现在进行消费。他们会倾向于延迟消费，即等待物价下跌时才购买。

举例而言，当消费者知道冰箱明年会更便宜，就不会现在买。假设一个经济体所有的人都在等待捡便宜货，该经济体肯定会面临消费大跌的窘境，厂商没有任何收入也不会继续投入生产。日本就是面临通货紧缩最典型的先进经济体。上世纪九十年代至今，日本陷入失落的三十年，足以见得通货紧缩的不良影响。

另一方面，过高的通货膨胀对世界上任何经济体都是一种祸害。通货膨胀也能反映出货币持有者对该货币的信心。津巴布韦在2019年面临恶性通货膨胀（hyperinflation）高达500%。该国所发行的100兆津巴布韦元钞票是世界上最大面额的。

更严重的是由于印刷两页钞票的成本远超过钞票的面子，所以该国最后只印一面的钞票，另一页则是白纸。打个比方如果印刷面值10令吉的纸钞需耗费的成本高于10令吉，那就不值得印了。恶性通货膨胀反映了人们对该货币乃至该国政府和中央银行毫无信心，钞票形同废纸。须知增印钞票不等同于增加财富。当一个国家的中央银行提高货币供应时，其国民并不会因此而变得富裕。

全世界大部分经济体通货膨胀的波动在1980年后大致低于5%，1980年之前的波动相对大。为了应对通货膨胀，纽西兰中央银行于1990年率先采用通货膨胀目标制（inflation targeting）。世界主要中央银行如英国中央银行、美联储、欧洲中央银行和日本中央银行也纷纷尾随在后采取通货膨胀目标制。

反映经济的好坏

采取其措施的中央银行会参照其通货膨胀预测，如果通货膨胀高于所设定的目标就会升息或降低货币供给等货币紧缩政策。通过相关措施，通货膨胀会保持稳定在0到5%之间。当通货膨胀维持在合理的范围在内，人们预期未来的物价会上升而进行消费。

通货膨胀率是一项很重要的经济数据。通货膨胀率除了反映经济的好坏以外，当它被拿来利率作比较时，也能反映资产价值。比方说，储蓄的利率为0%，通货膨胀率为2%，这意味著把钱拿到银行储蓄的人不但不能拿到利息，其购买力也会被通货膨胀蚕食。

针对通货膨胀的课题时，诺贝尔得主密尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）曾把增加货币供给而引发的通货膨胀比喻成酗酒。他指出，开始喝酒或开始印太多的钞票时，好的效果首先出现。坏的影响只是后来才出现。

总而言之，通货膨胀的波动比通货膨胀更值得关注。美联储在决定利率时，通货膨胀只是其中一项指标而已，美联储还会参照反映劳动市场的就业率和其他宏观数据。事实上，通货膨胀是经济活动的结果，而不是驱动经济的因素。

《通货膨胀到底是好还是坏？》（Is inflation good or bad?）原文：

Aside from cryptocurrencies, "inflation" has become a buzzword dominating the pages of the financial press lately. Investors are increasingly worried about inflation as two of the world's largest economies, the United States and China, begin to recover from the pandemic. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to measure the percentage change in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to reflect the cost of living. The fixed basket of goods and services can be divided into 12 categories, including food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, alcohol and tobacco, medical care, clothing and shoes, and communications.

CPI data is published on a monthly basis, whereas the current month's figures are the previous month's, and so on. The department in charge of the relevant data will compare the latest CPI with that of the same period last year. If the latest index has increased compared with that of the same period last year, it indicates inflation; otherwise, it indicates deflation.

In economics, inflation generally refers to a monetary phenomenon in which the prices of goods and services generally rise. Cost-push inflation is a result of supply disruption of goods and services as a due to rising cost of production. This is also related to the current rally in commodity prices. The pandemic has affected the supply side of commodities, pushing up the price of raw materials for many producers. 

On the other hand, demand-pull inflation is a result of economic expansion, increased government spending or growth in overseas economies. For example, the Federal Reserve's printing money and increased financial aid in response to the pandemic, as well as the pent-up demand in wake of the recovery of the pandemic in some countries, tend to trigger inflation. The unprecedented impact of the pandemic has hit most of the major economies in the world, and governments have resorted to expansionary monetary policies to stimulate the economies.

Inflation is a concern not only for investors, but also for ordinary citizens and governments, since it erodes the purchasing power of consumers. Inflation and deflation are often considered as two evils affecting the economy by economists. The question is which of these two is more horrible? 

Deflation is less welcomed compared to inflation. Imagine that consumers do not spend now when they expect prices to fall in the future. They tend to delay spending in anticipation for prices to drop further. For example, when consumers expect that refrigerators will become cheaper next year, they may not make the purchase now. If everyone in an economy is waiting for good bargains, there will be no consumption at all. Due to dwindled incomes, the manufacturers will have less incentive to produce goods. Japan is a typical advanced economy facing deflation. Starting from the 90s to the present, Japan has been beleaguered by deflation. Japan is in three “lost decades” as evidenced by the negative effects of deflation.

On the other hand, overly high inflation is a bane to any economy in the world. Inflation can also reflect the confidence of holders of a particular currency. Zimbabwe faced hyperinflation of up to 500% in 2019. The country's 100-trillion-dollar note is the world's largest single banknote. 

What is even worse is the cost of printing two pages of a banknote has outweighed its face value. Therefore, the country ended up printing only one side of the banknote while leaving another side blank. For example, if it costs more than RM10 to print a RM10 banknote, it is not worth printing. Hyperinflation reflects a lack of confidence in the currency, or even in the country's government and central bank. When there is hyperinflation, money is worthless. Printing more money is not the same as increasing wealth. When a country's central bank increases the money supply, its citizens do not become richer.

Volatility of inflation in most of the economies globally have been ranging below 5 per cent since 1980 in contrast with more volatile inflation prior to 1980. In order to address the issue of inflation, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand became the first central bank to adopt inflation targeting in 1990. The world's major central banks, such as the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, have followed suit. 

The central banks that adopt inflation targeting will refer to its inflation forecasts and tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates or reducing the money supply if inflation is higher than its target. By adopting these measures, inflation will remain stable between 0 and 5 percent. When inflation is well within a reasonable range, people will start to spend in anticipation of rising prices in the future.

Inflation rate is a very crucial economic data. Aside from gauging the health of the economy, inflation rate can also reflect asset values when compared to interest rates. For instance, if the interest rate for saving deposits is 0% and the inflation rate is 2%, it means that the savers would not receive any interest payments from the bank while their purchasing power would get eroded. 

In a discussion about inflation, Nobel laureate Milton Friedman once compared inflation caused by an increase in the money supply to alcoholism. He pointed out that good results come first when one starts drinking or printing too much money. The bad effects only come later.

In conclusion, volatile inflation is more of a concern rather than inflation. Inflation rate is just one measure the Federal Reserve uses to determine interest rates. The Federal Reserve also looks at employment and other macroeconomic data that reflect the labor market for interest rate policy. In fact, inflation is a result of economic activities rather than a factor driving the economy.

【作者】

庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展,楼市股市,经济政策建议,理财,科技,经济科课程及个人成长。

郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

Tey Eng Xin

Financial professional. He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.