庄太量／郑荣信：大马股市演义

大马政府在为新冠疫情疲于奔命却苦无进展之际，另一边厢的大马股市却上演硝烟四起的一幕。在美国纽约交易所上市的玩具驿站（GameStop）因著卖空机构被散户逼空的新闻占据各大媒体的版位，可谓一时无两。大马散户投资者似乎也从玩具驿站受到感召，依样画葫芦在社交媒体“揭竿起义”扬言复制美国散户大败卖空机构的一幕。这次在即时通讯应用程式Telegram集结的投资者把矛头指向了一支通过受监管卖空机制（regulated short-selling）被机构投资者大量卖空的手套股。

正所谓“无风不起浪”，这场“战役”的导火线可以追溯到知名外资投行在去年年杪给手套板块给出“减持”（underweight）评级并大砍一众手套股的目标价。该投行在其研究报告中解释，随著新冠病毒检测速度的加快，手套需求放缓，预计市场将出现巨大供过于求的情况，手套制造商正在度过一个超常增长周期。

由于股市出现一些投资者“响应”该报告纷纷卖出手套股，导致股价下滑。除此之外，大马证券监督委员会和大马交易所解禁受监管卖空机制。受监管卖空机制的解禁加剧了手套股股价下挫的现象。这种现象也造成早前以较高价位买入手套股的投资者面临账面亏损的窘境。

股市沦为社运战场

然而，这群以散户居多的投资者对外资投行大砍目标价的举动不“买单”，认为其举动存有恶意，旨在打压手套股股价，并趁低吸纳。普遍上，他们对基本面良好且业绩屡创新高的手套股前景抱持乐观的态度。于是，各种阴谋论在社交媒体甚嚣尘上。

另外，大马交易所发布的卖空量数据显示卖空机构大量卖空手套股也成为“最后一根稻草”，一场战役也因此“一触即发”。此时，早已蠢蠢欲动的神秘发起人借即时通讯应用程式的便利发布对抗卖空机构的“宣言”，号召散户集体买入被大量卖空的手套股，誓言要卖空机构败退。

该通讯群组不断壮大，会员人数从最初数千人霎时间飙升至数万人之众，并受到国际媒体的关注和报道。此外，由于此事涉及公众利益，所以引起监管单位的关注。大马证券监督委员会和大马交易所发出联合文告，提醒投资者对通讯应用程式里聊天室推荐的股票谨慎而为。

无可否认，科技的进步催生了诸如占领华尔街、占领中环和阿拉伯之春等社会运动事件。在大马股市上演的股民对抗卖空机构使股市沦为社会运动战场。这些社会运动的操作方式都有一个共同点，即发起人都以阴谋论为叙述（narrative）。首先，发起单位会以阴谋论作为号召，声称一个强大的集团正在打压普通群众及有隐秘议程。绘影绘声的叙述往往令人们为之动容。发起单位通常擅于制造舆论。在集合相当影响力时，发起单位会鼓动跟随者付诸行动。

避免“自证预言”偏差

这次的阴谋论是基于外资投行蓄意对手套股给出负面的评级，以有利于卖空机构获利。发起单位不断鼓吹会员买入相关股项，推动股价上涨，从而迫使卖空机构被逼空（short squeeze）。发起单位更把这次行动“包装”成散户对抗卖空机构，只要会员“团结合作”一起买入被推荐的股票就能打败卖空机构。卖空交易有著悠久的历史，第一笔在荷兰的卖空交易发生于1609年。双向交易是资本市场的基本制度，投资者毋需过于担心。

不管你是不是当中的一分子，必须厘清的事实是究竟谁是最终的受益者？难道这真的是散户对垒卖空机构吗？根据媒体报道，玩具驿站一役中，带领散户狙击卖空机构的发起人基尔（Keith Gill）获至少2000万美元／8097万令吉的盈利。该公司原有的股东也随著公司股价节节攀升而身价水涨船高。

因此，出于响应“号召”贸然买入股票的投资者极有可能为他人做嫁衣。预先购入股票的投资者占有优势，后来加入的投资者可能为前者“抬轿”。投资者应该厘清发起单位是否存有利益冲突。获利倾向难以让所有人团结只买不卖。况且股价因为有购兴而上升正符合经济学的供需理法则，本来就不是什么秘密。投资者必须谨慎，避免陷入“自证预言”（self-fulfilling prophecy）偏差。

再者，有别于外国的卖空机制，大马受监管卖空机制的条件相较严格，如任何一支可卖空股票的每日可卖空上限和累积净卖空仓位上限（aggregated net short position）分别为2%及4%。加上基于这次备受关注的股项是大马富时综合指数的成份股，每日的股价上限为30%。

根据交易所所设的规则，如果一支股票连续两个交易日触及30%的上限，交易所有权让第三个交易日的价格保持在前一个交易日的闭市价。其实，除了机构投资者，散户投资者也可以参与卖空218支获批准的股票。既然散户也可以参与卖空机制，根本谈不上是散户投资者对抗卖空机构。投资者不妨探究游戏驿站和大马手套股流通量的差别：后者的流通量远远高于前者。换句话说，后者需要更大的买气才能把股价推高。该群组会员们期待相关股票可以像游戏驿站有天文数字的盈利是难如登天的。

总而言之，股市如虎口，独立和谨慎的思考至关重要的。投资者在金融市场中应时时保持“小心求证”的心态，绝不可以人云亦云。

大马股市演义（Malaysian stock market saga: Do not be lured by the narratives）原文：

As Malaysian government is battling against the pandemic but cannot help with it, a battle has ignited in the stock market. New York Stock Exchanges listed GameStop Corp. has been receiving wide media coverage lately, thanks to news that short sellers were short squeezed by the retail investors. Malaysian retail investors seem to have taken a cue from the saga, threatening to replicate the American counterpart by waging a war against the short-sellers. The rally of investors on instant messaging application Telegram took aim at a glove stock that has been heavily shorted by institutional investors through regulated short-selling (RSS) mechanism.

Double whammy

As the saying goes, "there's no smoke without fire", the trigger for this saga can be traced back to the end of last year when a prominent foreign investment bank gave an "underweight" rating for the glove sector and slashed the target price of several glove stocks. 

In a research note, the investment bank explained that glove demand decelerates in tandem with the pace of testing for Covid-19 and the market is expected to see oversupply of gloves. The glove makers are undergoing a supernormal growth cycle. 

Glove stocks saw decline as some investors reacted to the report by selling off their holdings. In addition, Securities Commission (SC)  and Bursa Malaysia have lifted the ban on RSS. The decline in the price of gloves stocks  was exacerbated by the lifting of the ban on RSS. This incident has also led some investors who bought glove stocks at higher prices earlier on to suffer paper losses.

The stock market has turned into a battleground

However, this group of people mostly consists of retail investors who did not subscribe to the move of the foreign investment bank which had lowered the target price of glove stocks. They considered that the move was malicious and it was meant to push down the prices of glove stocks. Some investors considered that by doing so, the foreign investment bank could accumulate glove stocks at a lower price. Generally speaking, they are optimistic towards the prospects of glove stocks which have good fundamentals and reported record best quarter results recently. Social media are deluged by all sorts of conspiracy theories. 

In addition, the RSS data released by Bursa Malaysia shows that the short-selling institutions had heavily shorted the particular glove stock. This has become the "last straw" and put conflict at the breaking point. Meanwhile, an anonymous founder or founding group who has been waiting for such an opportunity leverages on the convenience of instant messaging application to issue a "manifesto" against  the short-sellers. The founder or founding group has called on the retail investors to collectively buy the heavily shorted glove stocks, vowing to take on the short-selling institutions.

The chat group has grown from a few thousand members to tens of thousands and received international media attention and coverage. In addition, since the public interest is at stakes, it has attracted the attention from the regulators. Securities Commission and Bursa Malaysia  have issued a joint statement warning investors to be cautious of stocks recommended in  the chat group.

Undoubtedly, technological advancement has given rise to social movements such as Occupy Wall Street, Occupy Central and the Arab Spring. Malaysian stock market has turned into a battleground for social movements due to the conflict between retail investors and short-selling institutions. 

Using conspiracy theories as a narrative to instigate social movements has become a modus operandi of the founder or founding group. First, the founder or founding group will invoke a conspiracy theory, claiming that a powerful group is suppressing ordinary people and has hidden agendas. People are often lured by vivid narratives. The founder or founding group is usually good at provoking public opinions. When significant influence is commanded, the founder or founding group will instigate the followers to take actions.

Avoid the "self-fulfilling prophecy" bias

Foreign investment bank’s move to lower glove stocks’ target prices to benefit short-selling instituions is deemed as the conspiracy theory this time. The founder or founding group constantly calls on members to buy a particular stock in a concerted effort to drive up the share price, thus forcing short sellers to be short squeezed. The founder or founding group also presented the campaign as retail investor versus short-selling institutions which could be defeated if members were to buy the recommended stock cohesively. 

Short-selling has a long history. The first short-selling  transaction in the Netherlands can be dated back to 1609. Two-way trade is capital market fundamental regime. Therefore, investors do not have to worry.

No matter if you belong to the chat group or not, it is important to clarify the fact that who is the ultimate beneficiary? Is it true that it is merely a conflict between the retail investors and short-selling institutions? According to media reports, Keith Gill, the founder who led the retail investors campaigning against short-selling institutions had pocketed at least $20 million profits. The company's existing shareholders have seen their net worth elevated by the rising share price. 

As such, the investors who buy stocks in response to a founder or founding group’s call to action are more likely to become cat’s paws. The investors who buy stocks in advance have an advantage, while those who join later might help the former to push the share price higher. Investors must clarify whether the founder or founding group has a conflict of interest. It is difficult to get cohesive compliance from everyone just to buy and not to sell a particular stock. It is not a secret that rising share prices are caused by greater buying interest. This concurs with the economic theory of law of supply and demand. Investors must be careful and not to fall prey to "self-fulfilling prophecy" bias.

Moreover, different from foreign short-selling mechanisms, the short-selling mechanism in Malaysia is relatively stricter. For instance, the daily gross short position limit and the aggregated net short position limit for a particular stock that can be short-sold are 2% and 4% respectively. In addition, since the stock in focus is one of the constituents of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index, the daily share price upper limit is capped at 30%. 

Under Bursa Malaysia’s trading rules, if any stocks hit the 30% limit up for two consecutive trading days, the exchange may maintain the trading price at the last done price of the previous market day for such period as specified by the exchange. In fact, apart from institutional investors, retail investors can also participate in short-selling 218 approved securities. Since retail investors can participate in the short-selling mechanism, it is no longer a battle between retail investors and short-selling institutions. Investors must be able to distinguish the difference in terms of liquidity between GameStop Corp. and the glove stock in focus.  The latter one has higher liquidity than its counterpart. In other words, there must be greater buying interest from the investors for glove stock in focus to soar. It is an uphill task for the chat group members to attain meteoric profits from the glove stock in focus as compared to GameStop Corp. 

In conclusion, the stock market is risky. Therefore, it is utmost crucial to exercise independent and prudent thinking. Investors in the financial markets must always pay fullest attention to little details and must not be swayed by narratives easily.

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung／Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life".

▸Tey Eng Xin／Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now works in a securities firm.