庄太量／郑荣信：春节经济学

春节是华人的传统新年，也是四大传统节日之首。正所谓“一年之计在于春”，中国和散居在世界各地的华人对春节极为重视。春节于农历初一开始直至十五元宵节方才正式结束。春节不仅仅是文化活动，春节对经济的影响不容小觑。究竟春节和经济有什么关系？

春节对经济的影响可以从“衣食住行”考究。春节时期穿上红彤彤的新衣是华人的传统。人们对服装的需求在春节前会有显著增长的趋势。春节期间，吃团圆饭的传统会使到餐饮业的销售额因著络绎不绝的食客上升，有者甚至可以凭籍春节的营收应付一整年的开销。

除此之外，应节产品的价格在春节时期会大幅上涨。随著大批游子返乡，酒店业的入住率会在春节期间达到顶峰。另外，交通航运的价格会随著需求增加而比平时高。

经济活动转移线上

在中国，数以万计的游子返乡而形成的大规模移动也被称为“春运”。比起一年之内其他的节期，春节对各行各业的影响更为显著，这种由消费拉动的经济活动在以华人为主或拥有庞大华人人口的国家和地区如中国、台湾、香港、新加坡和马来西亚也被称作“春节经济学”。这种现象也发生在深受中华文化影响和同样过春节的国家如越南、日本和韩国。

随著世界踏入互联网时代，经济活动也从线下转移至线上。各大电子商务网站的流量会因著华人互相送礼的传统而增加。人们除了在网上购物赠予亲朋好友，也会在线上发放“电子红包”。同时，新冠疫情的来袭也促使人们选择网上办年货，避免因为外出受病毒感染的风险。

全球华人即将挥别庚子鼠年，迎来辛丑牛年。有鉴于“牛”在金融市场象征行情看涨，是前景乐观的代名词，所以牛年在金融市场颇受投资者欢迎。再加上经历了波谲云诡的一年后，投资者憧憬金融市场尤其是股市可以在新的一年有新气象。因此，春节除了对经济有显著影响外，投资者最关心的问题莫过于“股市会升吗”？

股市有“春节效应”

有研究显示，一些以华人为主的股市有“春节效应”，即股市会在春节前后异常回报（abnormal return）。传统经济学无法充分解释这种现象是不是因为春节欢腾的气氛，让投资者感觉雀跃而引发购买股票的兴趣。

传统经济学假设人是理性的并犹如机器在做决策时总是精准无误。由于人很多时候做的决策不是理性的，行为经济学有助于弥补“理性人”假设的缺陷。透过2013年诺贝尔奖得主、耶鲁大学经济系著名教授罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）的著作《叙事经济学》（Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events），我们可以理解叙事（narrative）如何影响经济活动和决策。

在书中，希勒教授解释叙事对总需求、供给和风险偏好三方面的影响。与其他“人造”节日如“双十一”和情人节一样，春节就是一个有趣的叙事。在春节期间所进行的活动都是基于“春节”这个叙事。

举例而言，应节品如年饼、年糕和年花的价格为什么在春节和元宵节后差别那么多。难道过年时吃的年饼比较可口，所以价格比较昂贵？其实众所周知年饼在春节前后的制作成本是一样的，只是人们在节后相关物品的需求骤跌。人们对年饼所支付的溢价（premium price）可以用春节这个叙事来解释。

古希腊哲学家亚里士多德（Aristotle）曾说：人类是天生社会性动物。如果大家都一起欢庆春节的话，大家也会愿意为这个看似不理性的叙事付出额外的金钱。另外，新年穿上印有生肖年生肖的新衣是一件有“仪式感”的事情，也正因为下一次穿上同一个生肖的新衣是十二年后的事情。这种叙事所带来转眼即逝的仪式感让人们格外珍惜。大家在欢庆春节的当儿，不妨留意这些经济活动背后价格的变化和人的行为种种微妙之处。

《春节经济学》（Spring Festival Economics）原文：

The Spring Festival is traditional Chinese New Year and stays as the top festival among four Chinese traditional festivals. As the saying goes, the whole year's work depends on good planning in spring, Chinese people in the People's Republic of China and the Chinese diaspora all over the world place great importance to the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival officially commences on the first day of the lunar calendar and ends on the fifteenth day of the Lantern Festival. The Spring Festival is more than just a cultural event. The economic impact of the festival cannot be underestimated. The question is what does the Spring Festival have to do with the economy?

The impact of the Spring Festival on the economy can be seen through four basic necessities of life namely, food, clothing, accommodation and transportation. It is a Chinese tradition to be dressed in red new clothes during the Spring Festival. The demand for new apparels tends to increase significantly before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the tradition of having a family reunion dinner can increase the sales of the catering industry due to the high influx of diners. Some caterers can even cover the expenses of the whole year with the revenue derived from the Spring Festival. 

Besides, the prices of festive products will rise sharply during the Spring Festival. Occupancy rates in the hotel industry peak during the Spring Festival as a large number of travellers return home. In addition, the costs of transportation will be higher than usual as demand increases.

In China, the mass movement of tens of thousands of people returning home is also known as "chunyun" (Spring Festival Travel) . More than any other time of the year, the Chinese New Year has a significant impact on all sectors of the economy. The consumption-driven economic activity is also known as "Spring Festival Economics" in countries and regions populated by Chinese ethnic groups such as China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. This phenomenon also takes place in countries that are deeply influenced by Chinese culture which also celebrate the Spring Festival, such as Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.

Economic activities have shifted online

As the world enters into a digital era, economic activity is moving from offline to online. The traffic of major e-commerce sites will surge due to the Chinese tradition of giving gifts to each other. In addition to online shopping and giving gifts to friends and relatives, people also send  "e ang pow". Due to the pandemic, most people have resorted to online shopping to avoid the risk of getting infected while shopping outside.

The Chinese people around the world will bid farewell to the Year of the Rat and usher in the Year of the Ox. The Year of the Ox is most welcomed among investors in financial markets, as it is a symbol of optimism in the financial markets. Additionally, after a turbulent year, investors are looking forward to starting afresh in the financial markets particularly stock market in the Chinese New Year. Apart from its profound impact on the economy, the question investors are most concerned about is "will the stock market thrive?" 

Spring Festival Effect is present in some stock markets

Studies have shown that some stock markets dominated by Chinese have the "Spring Festival effect", that is, investors in those stock markets could reap abnormal returns before and after the Spring Festival. Traditional economics does not fully explain whether this phenomenon is triggered by investors' interest in buying stocks because of the excitement surrounding the Chinese New Year.

Traditional economics assumes that people are rational and they can make accurate and inerrant decisions like machines. Since many of the decisions people make are not always rational, behavioural economics helps to bridge the gap in the "rational person" hypothesis. In the book entitled “Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events” by Nobel Prize laureate in 2013 and distinguished professor of Economics at Yale University Robert Shiller,  we can understand how narratives influence economic activities and decision-making. 

In his book, Professor Shiller explains the impact of narrative on aggregate demand, supply and risk appetite. Like other "man-made" holidays such as Double 11 and Valentine's Day, Spring Festival is an interesting narrative. The activities that take place during the Spring Festival are based on the narrative of the Spring Festival. 

For example, why do the prices of festive products such as nian gao (new year cake), nian bing (new year cookies) and nian hua (new year flower) vary so much after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival? Are the new year cookies becoming more tasty during the Spring Festival that justify their higher price? In fact, it is well known that the cost of making a new year cake is the same before and after the Spring Festival, but the demand for related items drops sharply after the festival. The premium price people pay for new year cakes can be explained by the narrative of the Spring Festival. 

The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle once said that humans are inherently social animals. If People celebrate the Spring Festival together, they will be willing to pay more for this seemingly irrational narrative. In addition, there is a "sense of ritual" to be clothed with new costumes printed with Chinese zodiac image during the Spring Festival, precisely because the next time you wear the costume is 12 years away. The fleeting sense of ritual brought by this narrative makes people cherish it more. As you celebrate the Spring Festival, it is worth paying attention to the price changes and the subtleties of human behaviors behind these economic activities.

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung/Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He is the owner of “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel.

▸Tey Eng Xin/Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.