庄太量/郑荣信：宏观经济和股市

有效的财政政策和货币政策对任何一个国家的经济都是攸关重要的。财政政策指的是由政府制定的开销和税收政策。货币政策的决策单位则是国家银行或中央银行。

我国国家银行（Bank Negara Malaysia）肩负著稳定物价和持续增长的“双重使命”（dualmandate）。自2010年起，国家银行的货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee）会分别在每两个月即1、3、5、7、9和11月举行6次会议以制定最新的货币政策和执行货币政策操作的政策。

货币政策委员会一共8名成员组成，并以国家银行总裁为首，其他成员分别是3名副总裁、2名助理总裁和2名外部成员。会议的最终结果会通过文告方式在下午3时正在国家银行网站对外公布。2016年7月前，会议结果的文告都是在傍晚6时发布。

按常例，文告内容的第一段都会清楚阐明隔夜政策利率（Overnight Policy Rate）决定。文告会对国内和外围的宏观经济环境做点评，最重要的宏观经济指标是整体通胀（headline inflation），委员会会对整体通胀做预期和做出反应。由于文告是在市场交易时段发布，因此投资者会针对会议的结果做出即时的反应。会议的结果对股票、债券、外汇等金融市场有著关键性的作用。

有鉴于全球经济渐渐复苏以及国内消费逐渐改善，国家银行在今年3月4日宣布维持隔夜政策利率在1.75%。除此之外，国家银行也在文告中紧提到将跟进国际油价和大宗商品价格的变化。

股市是领先经济指标

通货膨胀和通货紧缩是物价稳定的挑战，隔夜政策利率是国家银行用以制定货币政策的利器。然而，隔夜政策利率需要在适中水平，过高或过低的利率对经济成长不利。正所谓“牵一发而动全身”，这使得国家银行在制定和实施货币政策时如履薄冰。所有的经济活动与利率息息相关。

举例而言，当其他经济指标不变的情况下，为了抑制通货膨胀，国家银行会调高利率，进而鼓励有多余钱的人储蓄。反之，当经济放缓时，为了刺激市场消费，国家银行则会降低利率，鼓励企业借贷扩展生意以及人们多消费。

自2011年第二季度至2019年最后一季，隔夜政策利率一直保持在3%和3.25%。这种情况在2020年因著新冠疫情来袭，为了刺激我国经济，国家银行罕见地跟随世界主要中央银行的步伐，三次把利率从3%调降至1.75%。

由于利率是我国金融市场的重要指标，投资者自然对其“马首是瞻”。超越市场预期的低利率环境有提振股市的效用，惟低利率为股市带来的“红利”可能会随著经济复苏引发的通货膨胀而渐渐退却。对此，一些人不禁问道：为什么疫情持续，百业待兴，大马股市却能逆流而上？

须知股市是一个领先的经济指标（leading indicator），因此股市走在经济发展前头实属正常情况。从股市看我国未来几个月的经济发展趋向乐观，毕竟投资者对经济的乐观情绪已经体现在股市了。与其把股市上涨归咎于低利率的宏观环境，人们可以把此解读为出乎意料的货币政策使投资者在金融市场找寻更高回报的投资机会，放眼经济复苏所带来欣欣向荣的景象。

《宏观经济和股市》（The Nexus between Macroeocnomics and Malaysian Stock Market）原文：

Effective fiscal and monetary policies are vital to any country's economy. Fiscal policy refers to the spending and tax policies set by the government. The central bank is responsible for setting monetary policy. 

Bank Negara Malaysia is the central bank of Malaysia, has a "dual mandate" of price stability and sustained growth. Since 2010, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Malaysia has held six meetings every two months, namely January, March, May, July, September and November, respectively, to formulate the latest monetary policy and execute monetary policy operations. 

Monetary Policy Committee consists of eight members. The eight members are headed by the Governor of the central bank, and the 5 other members are 3 deputy governors, 2 assistant governors and 2 external members. The final outcome of the meeting will be announced on the central bank’s website by means of a statement at 3:00pm. Prior to July 2016, the statement was issued at 6pm. 

Generally, the first paragraph of the statement clearly spells out the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) decision. The statement will comment on the domestic and external macroeconomic environment. The most important macroeconomic indicator is headline inflation, to which the committee will anticipate and react. Since the statements are issued during trading hours, investors react immediately to the outcome of the meeting. The outcome of the meeting plays a pivotal role in financial markets such as stocks, bonds and foreign exchange.

In view of the gradual recovery of the global economy and improving domestic consumption, the bank has announced on 4 March 2021 that it will maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 1.75%. In addition, the central bank said in its statement that it would monitor global oil and commodity prices. 

Inflation and deflation are threats to price stability, and the Overnight Policy Rate is an effective tool used by central banks to set monetary policy. However, the Overnight Policy Rate needs to be optimum, neither too high nor too low. As the so-called "a slight change will affect everything else", this makes the central bank tread carefully in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. All economic activity is tied to interest rates.

For example, when other economic indicators are held constant, the central bank raises interest rates to curb inflation, thereby encouraging people with money in excess to save. Conversely, when the economy slows down, central banks cut interest rates to stimulate spending, encouraging companies to borrow to expand their businesses and people to spend more.

The Overnight Policy Rate remained at 3% and 3.25% from the second quarter of 2011 through the final quarter of 2019. In a rare move, Bank Negara Malaysia cut interest rates three times from 3% to 1.75% in an effort to stimulate the country's economy in the wake of the pandemic in 2020.

Since interest rate is an important indicator of the Malaysian financial market, investors naturally take the cue from it. An unexpected low interest rate environment has the effect of boosting stocks, but the "bonus" from low interest rates could fade as the economy recovers and heading to inflationary regime. Malaysian investors cannot help but ask: why can the stock market go against the headwind despite the pandemic still lingering and hundreds of businesses remain to be reopened? 

The stock market is a leading indicator and it is normal for the stock market to go ahead of the economy. Taking a cue from the stock market, Malaysia's economic development in the next few months tends to be optimistic, after all, investors' optimism about the economy has been priced in the stock market. Instead of attributing the stock market rally to a macro environment of low interest rates, investors can interpret this as a sign that monetary policy has led investors to seek higher returns in the financial markets and to look forward to a vibrant economy in the near term.

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展，楼市股市，经济政策建议，理财，科技，经济科课程及个人成长。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung／Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

▸Tey Eng Xin／Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.