庄太量/郑荣信：黄金未来走势

随著世界各国的人们开始接种新冠疫苗以及疫情逐渐有缓和的迹象，金融市场的投资者也已经著手为复苏主题开始布局。从新冠疫情爆发至今，全球金融市场就上演了“万物上涨”的景象。投资者对金融市场上林林总总的投资产品进行轮番炒作，包括债券、股票、交易所交易基金、加密货币、大宗商品等等。

宏观经济方面，全球仍旧处于低利率的环境，不满足于低定期存款回报率的民众纷纷提取存款，投资在不同的资产项目。大宗商品最为人所知的产品非黄金莫属。回顾2020年3月至8月期间，纽约商品交易所的黄金期货价格涨幅超过40%，更一度突破2000美元／8112令吉。

然而步入2021年之际，黄金期货价格呈下降的趋势，开年至今下跌超过10%。反观，被投资者视为可能取代黄金的比特币价格则屡创新高，2021年1月份至今已经大涨超过50%。黄金在疫情笼罩期间异军突起屡创新高，复苏之际却陷入“斯人独憔悴”的境况值得考究。

黄金闪闪发亮的外观自古以来就备受人们推崇。黄金最早的使用可以追溯到古埃及文明，那时的统治者法老更是使用黄金作为陪葬品。除此之外，黄金也曾被当作货币来使用，足以见得黄金的地位在众多贵金属之上。从供应面来看，黄金的四大主要生产国依照排名是中国、澳洲、南非和美国。

世界黄金协会截至2019年的数据显示，全世界的黄金存货有19万7576公吨。有47%的黄金存货是处于首饰形式，剩余的为私人投资或中央银行的官方储备及其他用途。

黄金是无息资产

从需求面来看，印度和中国分别占据世界黄金消费榜的第一和第二位，其庞大的消费量把排在第三的美国远远抛在后头。印度和中国对黄金的需求源自于两国对这种闪闪发亮的贵金属可以用于嫁娶的文化息息相关。两国的人民皆喜欢将这种有地位象征的贵金属穿戴在身上。

金融市场里的投资者把黄金视为避险和抵消通货膨胀的工具。黄金跟其他的大宗商品一样都有周期。从过去二十年黄金价格走势图来看，每一次在突破阻力价位创新高时，之后大多会持续上涨。上一轮黄金价格大涨是在2009年当美联储第一次宣布量化宽松（Quantitative Easing）政策，其目的是增加货币供应量，使人们更容易获得资金，以此作为刺激经济活动和增长的一种方式。

由于市场预期量化宽松政策会引发通货膨胀，进而对黄金这种能抵御通货膨胀的贵金属需求量大增，需求大于供应使到黄金水涨船高。因著新冠疫情，美联储在2020年再次推出宽松的货币政策，黄金也再次受到市场上所充斥的大笔资金青睐，有进入另外一次上涨周期的迹象。

然而，有别于2009年，世界各国还是处于复苏的阶段，这次的量化宽松环境短期内引发通货膨胀的可能性不高。由于中国和印度的经济实力增强和人口逐渐增加，对黄金的需求肯定随之提升。

此前，中印两国若可以在1900美金／7706令吉买入黄金，在经济实力变强时以更高价位买入黄金是必然的事。从地缘政治来看，中国和美国的关系也是黄金未来走势的风向标。由于两国关系并不稳定可能促使中国央行更倾向于把美金储备转为黄金储备，也为长期黄金价格提供支撑。

总而言之，黄金与一众投资产品一样都是有风险的。投资者必须注意黄金是无息资产（non-interest bearing asset），即持有黄金是有机会成本的，黄金不像房产投资可以出租享有固定收入。因此，投资者在任何决定前，必须从不同方面思考，为长远布局才是王道。

《黄金未来走势》（Future Trend for Gold）原文：

As people around the world begin to get inoculated against the pandemic and there are signs that the pandemic is easing, investors in financial markets are already positioning themselves for the recovery theme. Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the global financial markets have seen "everything rally〃. Investors are taking turns to speculate on the myriad investments in the financial markets, including bonds, stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETF), cryptocurrencies, commodities, and more.

Macroeconomically, the world is still in a low interest rate environment. People who are not satisfied with the low rate of return on fixed deposits withdraw their funds and invest in different asset classes. No commodity is better known than gold. Back in the period March to August 2020, gold futures on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose more than 40 percent, briefly topping $2,000. 

However, as we usher in  2021, gold futures is on a downward trend, down more than 10% since the start of the year. Bitcoin, by contrast, which investors see as a potential substitute to gold, has hit a series of new highs, surging more than 50% since January 2021. Gold rose to record high during the pandemic, being singled out in the recovery phase merits investorsˇattention.

Gold's shiny appearance has been prized by people since ancient times. The earliest use of gold dates back to the ancient Egyptian civilization, when the rulers, Pharaohs used gold as burial objects. In addition, gold has also been used as money, which is evident to suggest that gold ranks above other precious metals. On the supply side, the top four gold producers are China, Australia, South Africa and the United States. 
According to the World Gold Council's data as of 2019, the world's gold stocks stood at 197,576 metric tons. About 47% of the gold stock is in the form of jewellery, with the rest going to private investment or official reserves held by central banks and other purposes. 

On the demand side, India and China are the world's No. 1 and No. 2 gold consumers, respectively, leaving the U.S. in third place far behind in their massive consumption. The demand for gold in India and China stems from the cultural affinity between the two countries for the shiny precious metal to be used in weddings. People in both countries like to wear the precious metal as a status symbol.

Investors in the financial markets regard gold as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation. Gold like other commodities is cyclical. The chart of gold prices over the past two decades illustrates that each resistance breakout to a new high has mostly been followed by a sustained rally. The last big rally in gold prices was in 2009, when the Federal Reserve first announced Quantitative Easing, a policy aimed at increasing the money supply and making it easier for people to access as a way to stimulate economic activity and growth. 

Demand for gold, an inflation-resistant precious metal, has been boosted by expectations that quantitative easing will stoke inflation, and demand for gold has outweighed its supply. Due to the pandemic, the Federal Reserve adopted loose monetary policy again in 2020, and gold was again favored by the large amount of funds flooded in the market, showing signs of entering another rising cycle. 

However, unlike 2009, the world is still in the recovery phase, and this time the quantitative easing environment is not likely to trigger inflation in the short term. Demand for gold is sure to rise as China and India grow in economic power and population. 

Previously, if China and India could afford to buy gold at $1,900, they would surely have bought gold at a higher price when their economies has grown stronger. In geopolitical terms, the relationship between China and the U.S. is also a bellwether for gold's future. The insatiable relationship between the two countries may motivate the People's Bank of China to shift its dollar holdings into gold reserves. This move provides good support for gold prices in the long run.

In short, gold is as risky as other investments. Investors must note that gold is a non-interest bearing asset, which means that holding gold has an opportunity cost. Unlike real estate investments, houses can be rented out and the owner could enjoy steady income. Therefore, investors must think carefully before making any investment decisions. Long term planning tends to prevail.

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展，楼市股市，经济政策建议，理财，科技，经济科课程及个人成长。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung/Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

▸Tey Eng Xin/Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.