庄太量/郑荣信：长期投资锦囊

在投资股票上，不管是短线投资，也就是“即日鲜”，还是中长期或长线投资，首先得看一下投资者的性格是不是能够忍受亏损。如果不愿意接受短期股价波动所造成的亏损，可以选择长期投资。而长线持有的投资风格又是怎样的呢？

长线投资者会留意被低估的股项，选股时最常用的指标时市盈率（Price-to-Earningsratio）和股息率（dividend yield）。市盈率被投资者用来衡量公司未来收益的成长或该股票是否被低估。另一方面，股息率被用来衡量公司在录得净利是是否对股东做出回馈。

在使用以上指标前，投资者必须明白不同板块的公司的市盈率和股息率各有差异，不能以绝对值（absolute value）来衡量一支股票。反之，投资者应该使用相同板块的其他股票的市盈率和股息率作比较。投资者应避免依赖单一指标做出决定。

相比起短线投资者只能通过股票价差赚取利润，长期投资有机会赚取资本收益（capital gain）和从股息获得收益分配（income distribution）。买基本面好并有定时派息的公司股票就好像在买一间房子一样。公司派发的股息就好像租金是投资者享在特定时候有收入；当股价上涨时，投资者将股票卖出，就可以通过股票价差赚取资本收益。

对公司进行尽职调查

对于有股息收入长线投资者，短期内股价上涨是无关紧要的，正如有稳定租金收入的屋主不会因为房价上升而卖出房子。事实上，不是所有股票适合长期投资。要找寻长期投资的股票必须花时间研究该公司的年报。年报所涵括的资料可分为定性（qualitative）和定量（quantitative）。

定性资料的例子是商业模式和管理层；定量资料的例子有公司的营运成本和市场占有率。投资者必须对公司进行尽职调查（due diligence）并确保研究是钜细靡遗的。

除此之外，投资者对股票进行研究时要从多方面思考从而摆脱确认偏差（confirmation bias），千万不能一味找寻购买那支股票的原因来支撑自己片面的观点。不管一支股票的前景有多好，投资者切忌将所有的本钱放在一支股票。重仓一支股票有好有坏，如果赚了当然是好事，但是很有可能把资金锁死，并承受更大的风险。

如果投资者本身是不愿意卖出亏损股票套换现金或注入新的资金，很可能短时间内也无法再购买其他股票。投资者可以通过投资不同板块的公司以建立可以分散风险的投资组合。

从金融史上的股灾来看，当整个市场陷入恐慌时，投资者就会争相抛售手上的股票，因此无论基本面多好的公司股价也会受到抛售潮的殃及。

重要的是，基本面好的公司股价相对更快复苏。借鉴于2020年3月份的大马股市大跌时，基本面好的公司股价虽然也是受到波及，但是随后也渐渐复苏了。尽管大部分股票股价下跌，有些板块的股票股价还是可以逆流而上。这就是为什么要分散投资在不同的板块。

享誉全球的投资商沃伦巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾经说过：股市是一种把钱从没有耐心的人转移到有耐心人身上的工具。长线投资者需要具备耐心方能成事。另外，买卖股票不要盲从信从所谓权威。不要因为偶像推荐而盲目购买股票。

最后，不要把全部资金押注在一支股票上。总而言之，做任何事情，包括投资，一定要自己分析，千万不要随波逐流。要知道，投资不等于投机，投资者可以当作这是一个学习的过程。

《长期投资锦囊》（Long-term Investment Strategies）原文：

Whether it is a short-term investment also known as intraday trading, or a medium to long-term investment, the first thing to look at is whether the investor's personality is able to tolerate losses. If one is reluctant to accept losses caused by short-term stock price fluctuations, one can choose to invest for the long term. What is the long-term investment style? 

Long-term investors look for undervalued stocks. The most common indicators for picking stocks are the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and the dividend yield. The price-to-earnings ratio is used by investors to gauge a company's future earnings growth or whether the stock is undervalued. Dividend yield, on the other hand, is used to measure whether a company pays returns to shareholders when it has made net profit. 

Before using the aforementioned indicators, investors must understand that the (P/E) ratio and dividend yield of companies in different sectors vary, and one should not measure a stock in absolute value. Instead, investors should use the P/E ratio and dividend yield of other stocks in the same sector. Investors should avoid relying on a single indicator to make investment decisions.

While short-term investors can only earn profits through stock price differences, long-term investors have the opportunity to earn capital gains and income distribution through dividends. Buying stocks with good fundamentals and regular dividends payout is like buying a house. Dividends payout from the company are like rents that investors receive at a given time.  When the stock price rises, the investor sells the stock and makes a capital gain from the price difference. 

For long-term investors with dividend income, a short-term rise in share prices is irrelevant, just as a homeowner with a steady rental income does not sell his house just because the price of the house is rising. The truth is not all stocks are good for long-term investments. To find stocks for long-term investments, one must spend time studying the company's annual report. 

The information contained in the annual report can be divided into qualitative and quantitative. Examples of qualitative information are business models and management. Examples of quantitative data are company's operating costs and market share. Investors must conduct due diligence on the company and make sure the research is thorough.

In addition, investors should think from various perspectives when researching stocks in order to get rid of the confirmation bias. They should not just look for reasons to buy a stock to support their one-sided views. No matter how good a stock's prospects are, investors should never go all-in on one stock. There are pros and cons to being in a heavy position in a particular stock, and it is good if one can make a profit, but it is likely to lock up ones  capital and lead to greater risk exposure. 

If investors themselves are not willing to sell losing stocks for cash or inject new capital, they probably would not be able to buy other stocks anytime soon. By investing in companies in different sectors, investors can build a portfolio to diversify risks. 

The history of financial crises shows that when the market is plunging, investors rush to sell their stocks, no matter how sound a company is, it will be impacted by the sell-off as well.

More importantly, the share prices of companies with good fundamentals have recovered relatively quickly. Taking a reference to the Malaysian stock market crash in March 2020, the share prices of companies with good fundamentals were also affected, but then gradually recovered. Although most stocks plunged, certain sectors were able to buck the trend. That is why it is important to diversify investments in different sectors.

The world renowned investor, Warren Buffett once said that the stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. Long-term investors need to be patient to be successful. In addition, one must refrain from  buying and selling stocks by following the so-called guru blindly. Do not buy stocks blindly because someone you look up to has  made recommendations. Finally, do not go all-in on a single stock. 

In conclusion, in all endeavors including investment, make sure to carry out independent analysis, never jump on the bandwagon.. We must understand that investing is not the same as speculating. Investors can view investments as a learning process.

【作者】

▸庄太量教授

香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。他也在“庄教授经济人生”YouTube频道分享经济分析，内容涉及各地经济发展，楼市股市，经济政策建议，理财，科技，经济科课程及个人成长。

▸郑荣信

毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。

英文版：

▸Prof Terence Chong Tai Leung/Associate professor of economics 

Prof Terence is an associate professor of economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong and author of a book entitled "Alchemy of Life". He also shares economic analysis on “Prof Terence Chong, The Economist” YouTube channel, covering local economic developments, property and stock markets, economic policy advice, financial management, technology, economics courses and personal growth.

▸Tey Eng Xin/Financial professional

He graduated with an Analytical Economics degree from Multimedia University, and he has co-authored "How Investor Sentiment Affects the Malaysian Stock Market" with his professors  in an international academic journal. He is interested in studying the theory and practice of behavioral economics. He started his financial career at Bursa Malaysia and now he is working in a securities firm.